EU leaders defy Warsaw to reappoint Donald Tusk

EU leaders reappointed European Council President Donald Tusk for a second two-and-a-half-year term on Thursday, barreling over the ferocious opposition of Tusk’s native Poland.

Politico

Commission outlines 5 scenarios for future of EU

The European Commission has outlined five scenarios for the future of the European Union in a white paper obtained by POLITICO ahead of its publication on Wednesday.

The scenarios are entitled “carrying on,” “nothing but the single market,” “those who want more do more,” “doing less more efficiently,” and “doing much more together.”

The paper is an attempt by the Commission, led by President Jean-Claude Juncker, to shape a major debate about the EU’s future following Britain’s shock decision to leave. The document is also intended to influence a declaration by the 27 countries remaining in the EU at the bloc’s 60th anniversary summit on March 25 in Rome.

The paper starts with a somber tone, acknowledging the existential struggle the EU is facing due to crises over Brexit, migration and the eurozone. “Europe’s challenges show no sign of abating,” the paper says. It also notes the difficult balancing act facing the EU, as “many Europeans consider the Union as either too distant or too interfering.”

While generally neutral in its language, the Commission at times makes its preferred option clear. For example, on eurozone governance, the Commission aligns itself with the most federal option by saying it will issue a paper based on the 2015 Five Presidents’ Report, which called for a eurozone finance minister and stricter controls over the budgets of the 19 countries that use the single currency.

Here are more details of the five scenarios:

Scenario 1: Carrying on

This scenario assumes that staying the course will involve small, smooth changes to the functioning of the EU. The Commission says “carrying on” will deliver “incremental progress.” This option is based on national governments agreeing to deepen the EU’s single market, pool some military capabilities and “speaking with one voice on foreign affairs,” while leaving key responsibilities like border control mostly in the hands of national governments.

There are some dark clouds hanging over this option in phrases such as “Europeans are mostly able to travel across borders without stopping for checks,” indicating trouble ahead for the visa-free Schengen Zone if changes are not agreed to its management. The Commission warns: “Continuous improvement to border management is needed to keep up with new challenges. If this is not done, some countries may wish to maintain targeted internal controls.”

 Scenario 2: Nothing but the single market

Here the Commission focuses on the achievement with the broadest base of support: its single market. The Commission is not enthusiastic about this option, noting that “decision-making may be simpler to understand but the capacity to act collectively is limited” and “this may widen the gap between expectations and delivery at all levels.”

With the single market as its main mission, the Commission believes, the EU would face a heightened risk to the euro, because it would have failed to finish establishing the eurozone’s economic governance, leaving it vulnerable to new financial crises.

Companies would likely face more border checks, and EU members would revert to pursuing bilateral foreign policy. Trade deals and defense cooperation would also be more difficult. 

On a day-to-day level, the Commission believes connected cars would not take off in Europe under this scenario “due to the absence of EU-wide rules and technical standards.”

Scenario 3: Those who want more do more

This is effectively a multi-speed EU based on “coalitions of the willing” in specific policy areas such as defense, internal security, taxation or social matters. Under this scenario the Commission assumes that all 27 members would still make general progress on a deeper single market.

The Commission believes this model would lead to differences in citizens’ rights and is not optimistic that eurozone governance could be completed. However, it envisages that it would allow national militaries that have close relations with one another to move quickly into new fields like drone surveillance, or for aligned economies to created a unified business law code.

Scenario 4: Doing less more efficiently

By “doing less,” the Commission apparently means is “better tackle certain priorities together.” In other words, not “less” but doing more in “a reduced number of areas.”

The major headline achievements would be a fully resourced European Border and Coast Guard, a single voice on foreign policy and the establishment of a European Defense Union.

The Commission sees other priority areas for deeper cooperation as innovation, trade and security. Research could be focused on digitization and decarbonization of the economy.

The Commission points out one problem with this scenario — it relies on EU countries agreeing among themselves on the areas on which they want to cooperate more efficiently.             

Scenario 5: Doing much more together

Here the EU27 go “further than ever before in all domains” — code for a federal EU.

The EU would get more of its “own resources” (the ability to raise revenue through tax), the eurozone would be completed along the lines of the Five Presidents’ Report issued in 2015. The Commission prefers this option for eurozone governance and said it will issue a reflection paper to that effect in the coming months.

Under this scenario the EU would also assume powers to speak for all of Europe on trade and foreign policy, and would assume global leadership for fighting climate change and on humanitarian issues.

There would be “far greater and quicker decision-making” in Brussels, but the Commission acknowledges “there is the risk of alienating parts of society which feel that the EU lacks legitimacy.”

Politico

EU voices 'full support' for Italy-Libya accord

EU leaders on Friday said the EU "welcomes with favour and is ready to support the development of the accord signed between Italy and Libya on February 2" by Italian authorities and Libyan Premier Fayez al-Serraj, according to a joint statement issued by the leaders at the Valletta summit on immigration.

Premier Paolo Gentiloni said after the summit that the European Council had "very much appreciated" Italy's migrant deal with Libya, calling it "the opening of a window of opportunity on which Italy will work and invest, but it is very important that the EU should also work and invest, and it will do that with additional resources which Juncker and Mogherini explicitly talked about".
"We must all be aware that it is a first step," he warned, however. "The internationally recognised Libyan government does not have the same control as Erdogan, to make a comparison. You can't expect the situation to suddenly change".

(...)

Ansa

EU founders speak of possible 'multispeed' future after Brexit

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and leaders of other founding states of the European Union spoke on Friday of some countries moving ahead faster than others with further integration.
After a summit in Malta at which all national leaders discussed plans for a formal declaration in March on the future of the bloc following Britain's departure, Merkel and others offered endorsements of a so-called "multispeed Europe", which some governments fear could damage EU unity in the wake of Brexit.
Though they disagree on details, Berlin, Paris and many of the 17 other states which use the euro currency are keen to bind the euro zone closer together after years of crisis in which investors have doubted the currency's survival. But some countries around the periphery of the bloc fear creating a system in which a hard core of states pushes the EU into policies they do not want.

The last few years, Merkel told reporters, showed "that there will be an EU with different speeds, that not everyone will take part in the same levels of integration".
One area in which governments are divided over the degree of integration is defence. With the departure of long-time sceptic Britain, France and Germany are keen to develop closer EU ties.
The 27 leaders are due to meet without British Prime Minister Theresa May on March 25 in the Italian capital to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding Treaty of Rome.
French President Francois Hollande said he thought that the Rome statement could mention "several speeds" as a possible way forward, though he stressed: "European unity is essential."
In a reminder of divisions in the bloc, Hollande, who will step down in May, took a dig at East European states which Paris complains fail to honour commitments -- such as taking in asylum-seekers -- while accepting big subsidies from Brussels:
"Europe isn't a cash-box, not a self-service restaurant, a Europe where you come and take what you need, where you take your structural funds or get access to the internal market and then show no solidarity at all in return," he told reporters. "Europe was built to be stronger together and it's that rule, that principle, which should be driven home in March."

In a paper offering proposals for the Rome declaration, the three Benelux neighbours said "different paths of integration and enhanced cooperation could provide for effective responses to challenges that affect member states in different ways".
Reuters

Donald Trump BATTERS Brussels with order to STOP EU Army plans or lose US Nato support

PRESIDENT TRUMP will demand Brussels abandons plans for an EU Army if it wants the US is to continue its support for Nato.

Senior British officers serving at the Pentagon have been briefed that one of the new administration’s top priorities will be to “sweep away” plans championed by Germany and France.

”We have been told quite clearly that, in an environment in which the political temperature in Eastern Europe is high and fiscal pressure on budgets is increasing, there can only be one joint force and that is Nato,” he said.

Senior US officers directing future strategy want to see more delivery from European nations. There is grave concern about the intent and growing talk of an EU Army, which appears to draw resources away from the Alliance.

Burden sharing by Europe is expected feature highly during Theresa May’s visit with Trump next month, though Britain is one of only five members meeting spending targets.

Despite comments by President Trump calling Nato “obsolete”, new US defence secretary Gen James Mattis affirmed America’s commitment to the Alliance – and reinforced concerns against Russia.

“We have a long list of times we’ve tried to engage positively with Russia. We have a relatively short list of successes in that regard,” he told Congress on Friday.
While European defence spending is the primary concern, insiders warned that Trump would also be gauging Europe’s “boots on the ground” commitments.
The US currently fields six Brigades in Europe, including the newly arrived 3rd Armour Brigade which boasts hundreds of armoured vehicles, including 87 tanks, and 3,500 troops to boost Nato’s efforts to deter Russia in Eastern Europe.
Of Europe’s Nato members, only Britain and France have put themselves forward to lead three of its remaining four battalions.
“President Trump is a numbers man.  Defence spending is one thing, but when he meets with Nato chiefs in Brussels later this year, he will do the math: the US is deploying almost six battalions in Europe. How does this stack with Europe’s commitment? The US and Germany are playing their part but what about the rest?”,  said another source close to the administration.
He said that Trump’s use of the word “obsolete” to describe Nato had been misinterpreted, adding: “He means that Nato must adapt to 21st Century challenges, including a counter–terror role.
“President Trump realises that, for just one per cent of the US defence budget, he can call upon 27 nations to stand up with it around the world.
“Europe supplied 40,00 troops to Afghanistan. That equates to 120,000 in real terms because for each soldier, two are in rotation. That's 120,000 US troops who didn't have to go to battle.”
During his campaign Trump pledged tens of thousands of new US troops, dozens of ships and hundreds of warplanes, plans would cost almost $100 billion more than the Pentagon has currently budgeted for Trump’s first term.
Rudi Giulliani, a key figure in Trump’s campaign, said the President was adopting a Reagan-like “peace through strength” strategy.
The former New York Mayor, who had dinner with Trump on Wednesday, said: “He believes that of the last 30 presidents of the last 50 -60 years, the most successful was Ronald Reagan, because he negotiated from strength and, lo and behold, won the cold war without firing a shot.”
The controversial 1000-strong Euro Corps was formed in 1993 and is spearheaded by a German- Franco brigade of troops. It provided HQ staff for operations in Afghanistan in 2004 and currently supports an EU maritime operation against pirates off Somalia. Directed by Brussels it is manned by 10 EU member states and Turkey. While in the EU, Britain used its influence to block its expansion.
Brexit was met with the immediate publication of plans to build a military new headquarters, as the EU scrambled to reinforce the project’s identity.
Separately, Germany’s defence white paper revealed its own ambitions to lead a pan-European force.
The moves have caused concern in the Trump camp.
“He is committed to NATO – but there is big concern about the EU moving towards an EU army, a military of Western Europe,” said Ted Malloch, President Trump’s new ambassador to the EU, recently.
Last night Ian Brzezinski, resident senior fellow with the Washington DC-based Atlantic Council think tank, said: “Where the EU is most effective is in leveraging its $17 trillion economic weight and in fostering economic development and democratic reform.
“When it develops military command structures and other military capacities it is institutionalizing duplications that serve no benefit.
“Nato is unsurpassed when it comes to so-called putting lead on a target and interoperability. The power of Nato-EU collaboration is found in their complimentarity, not redundancy.
He added: “With the appointment of Gen Mattis, a big supporter of Nato, as defence secretary, and the current Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Gen Curtis Scaparrotti, President Trump has a hammer and anvil with which to accelerate Nato’s transformation. “
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/757235/Donald-Trump-EU-Army-Nato-funding-European-Union-President

Theresa May: We’re leaving the single market

Britain is leaving the EU’s single market, Prime Minister Theresa May said Tuesday as she unveiled her strategy for leaving the European Union.

In hard hitting speech in London, May set out her vision of a United Kingdom outside the EU. While saying she wanted Britain to be a “best friend and neighbor to our European partners,” May said the U.K. would be leaving the EU’s single market, leaving the EU’s customs union in its current form, and ending large payments to the EU. She also backed a “flexible” transitional deal but warned that she would rather walk away from a deal than accept one that was bad for Britain. May also said members of both houses of the British parliament would get a vote on the final deal.

May ended months of speculation over whether she would pursue a hard Brexit by saying she would seek “a new and equal partnership…Not partial membership of the European Union, associate membership of the European Union, or anything that leaves us half-in, half-out.

“We do not seek to adopt a model already enjoyed by other countries. We do not seek to hold on to bits of membership as we leave,” she said. “The United Kingdom is leaving the European Union. My job is to get the right deal for Britain as we do.”

After describing the deal with the EU struck by David Cameron as a “valiant final attempt,” May said “there was not enough flexibility” for voters, which is why they backed Brexit in June.

May said remaining a member of the single market “would mean being bound by EU laws. That would mean in practice not leaving the EU.”

The British PM, who took office shortly after the June 23 vote, admitted that the U.K. was “at times seen as a awkward member” of the EU and added that the vote was “not always well understood” in other European capitals. But she said she did not want the Brexit vote to lead to a greater unraveling of the EU,” a possible dig at U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who told the Times and Bild newspapers this week that he expected more EU members to leave the bloc.

She said she wanted “a truly global Britain” to be “the best friend and neighbor to our European partners, but a country that reaches beyond the borders of Europe too.”

While May was clear about leaving the single market, she was less precise about the U.K.’s membership of the EU’s customs union. She said continued customs union membership would stop the U.K. being able to strike trade deals, but added that she wanted a customs agreement of sorts with Europe and “that could mean partial membership of the customs union.” How this would be achieved has yet to be decided, she said.

A number of European politicians, including Michel Barnier, the European Commission’s main man on Brexit, have warned that the U.K. would be on the hook for substantial payments into the EU budget even after Brexit, but May said Britain would no longer contribute “huge sums” to the EU once it leaves the bloc. She admitted that it might continue to make some payments, “in return for access to certain programs.”

May said that while Britain wants to remain a good friend and neighbor to the Continent, she was aware of some calls to punish Britain for voting to leave. A punitive deal would be “an act of calamitous self-harm for the countries of Europe, and it would not be the act of a friend,” she said, warning Europe that no deal for Britain would be better than a bad deal.

May said she wanted to guarantee the rights of EU nationals in Britain, and Britons living in Europe, as soon as possible, suggesting a deal could be struck straightaway. She said many EU countries also want an early deal, but not everyone.

Reversing her previous position, she said that MPs and members of the House of Lords would get a vote on the final deal. The government had long argued that it could invoke Article 50 without parliament’s consent, but High Court judges disagreed. A verdict from the Supreme Court, the highest in the country, is due any time and the government is expected to lose the case.

The PM also said she would “consider papers from the Scottish and Welsh governments” as part of the Brexit strategy.

May proposed a flexible Brexit transitional deal, with different aspects lasting for different amounts of time, and she warned that it was in “no one’s interests to have a cliff edge” although she stressed that she was opposed to an indefinite transition period.

She ended by saying: “The country is coming together. Now we need to put an end to the division and the language associated with it – Leaver and Remainer and all the accompanying insults – and unite to make a success of Brexit.” (...)

politico

More than half a million illegal immigrants entered the European Union last year

More than half a million illegal immigrants poured into the EU last year despite a landmark deal to end the crisis. Border agency Frontex’s first full figures for 2016 have revealed there were 503,700 detections of illegal border crossings.

The vast majority came via the Mediterranean into Italy and Greece. The ongoing wave comes despite a deal struck with Turkey in March to close down access to Greek islands, which was hailed as end to the migration crisis.

Tough new controls and returns saw a big drop of 79% in the number arriving in Greece, down to 182 500 – with Syrians, Afghans and Iraqis making up the largest share.

But at the same time, a record 181,000 crossed the central Mediterranean from Africa – a 20% rise from the previous 12 months.

The significant majority on this route were from West African countries, with Nigerians made up the largest portion, followed by nationals from Eritrea, Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, and Gambia. The 2016 annual total is less than a third of the massive 1,800,000 estimated to have entered the EU in 2015. (...)

Sun

Romania Chooses Left-Leaning Government

The Romanian Parliament approved a new left-leaning coalition government on Wednesday, ending weeks of uncertainty about who would lead a country that has been a staunch member of the European Union and NATO.

Sorin Grindeanu, 43, a former minister of communications and a compromise candidate, was named prime minister. He beat his Social Democratic Party’s first choice, Sevil Shhaideh, a member of the country’s Tatar minority who would have become the country’s first female and first Muslim prime minister.

The Social Democrats came to power in a national election on Dec. 11 on the promise of increasing government spending for health care, salaries and pensions. On Wednesday, Mr. Grindeanu said his government would raise the minimum wage and improve access to free prescription drugs. He also promised to create better-paying jobs so that Romanians would not seek work abroad. (...)

The natural pick for the job, the party’s leader, Liviu Dragnea, was barred from becoming prime minister after a 2015 conviction for electoral fraud. Though Mr. Dragnea will not hold any official role in the new cabinet, analysts expect that he will wield influence from behind the scenes.

“The real prime minister is Liviu Dragnea. This is the personal cabinet of Dragnea,” said Cristian Pirvulescu, dean of the political science department at the National School of Political Studies and Public Administration in Bucharest. (...)

nytimes.com

Year in review: 2016 in the European Union

"The European Union seems to have spent 2016 in a state of constant crisis - or "polycrisis," as European Commission president Juncker calls it. Our Brussels correspondent Bernd Riegert looks back over the past year.

Following the last EU summit meeting in December, Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel commented: "Looking back on 2016, we can say that this was a very turbulent year for us, for the European Union. Another very turbulent year, after 2015 proved extremely challenging on account of the many refugees. In particular, Britain's decision to leave the European Union is of course a decisive turning point." Everyone in Brussels agrees that, politically, this was a very bad year. European nationalists, populists and opponents of the EU, however, are celebrating.

January

The year began as the old one ended: with the refugee crisis. Thousands of people were arriving every day via the Balkan route. Austria was the first country to pull the brake, closing its borders to Slovenia and Hungary. Little by little the Balkan states also closed theirs. Refugees and other migrants started to collect in Greece.

In Brussels the European Commission promised to crack down on tax evasion by big business. The "Lux Leaks" affair showed how favorable policies in Luxembourg, Ireland, the Netherlands and many other EU countries enable companies to fiddle the system legally.

In EU member state Poland, the constitutional order came under threat. The EU Commission warned that the new conservative government there was obstructing the constitutional court. The Commission initiated proceedings, which still have not been concluded. The Polish government refuses to allow any kind of external interference in its affairs.

February

A last-ditch attempt to keep Britain in the EU. At a special summit, Prime Minister David Cameron obtained exceptional provisions for his disunited kingdom. "People said […] that a four-year restriction on benefits was completely out of the question, but that is now what is in the text," he declared. "I believe we are making real progress. [...] But the process is far from over. It will require hard work, determination and patience to see it through." Having secured "a clear path that can lead to a fresh settlement for Britain in a reformed European Union," Cameron set a June date for the Brexit referendum.

March

The EU and Turkey agreed on an effective policy to discourage refugees and migrants from attempting to travel to Europe. From March 20 onward, anyone arriving in Greece from Turkey would be sent back. Visiting Athens, EU President Donald Tusk made a dramatic appeal: "I am addressing all potential illegal economic refugees: Wherever you're from, don't come to Europe! Don't believe the smugglers! Don't put your lives and your money at risk. It won't do any good!" The EU decided to reinforce protection of its external borders. The plan worked, up to a point; there was a dramatic reduction in the number of arrivals. Chancellor Merkel herself promoted this new refugee policy after she was harshly criticized by other EU members. At home her party lost regional elections, and the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged ahead.

Terrorist attacks in Brussels. Islamists killed 32 people at the airport and in a subway station. Europe was in a state of shock. Bombs at the heart of the European capital. Investigators gradually uncovered a network of terrorists from Belgium, France and Syria. Some had entered Europe via the recently closed Balkan route. The EU subsequently decided to implement stricter entry and exit checks, including for EU citizens, and to initiate closer cooperation between secret services.

April

The Netherlands rejected the EU's Association Agreement with Ukraine. The "No" in the Netherlands is another victory for the populists, who had turned the vote into a referendum on Prime Minister Rutte's government and the EU. At the end of the year the EU will again revise its agreement with Ukraine. Rutte hopes to get the Dutch parliament to ratify it after all.

The pope visited Lesbos. Conditions in the refugee camps on the Greek island were very bad. The so-called "hot spots" for processing asylum seekers weren't working, because the asylum process in Greece was taking too long. People were not being deported to Turkey as agreed. EU member states were refusing to take refugees and asylum seekers from Greece and Italy as agreed. Lack of solidarity in the bloc.

May

In Austria the right-wing populist Freedom Party (FPÖ) lost the presidential election by a small margin. Former Green politician Alexander Van der Bellen was elected over the FPÖ's candidate, Norbert Hofer. The FPÖ contested the result - successfully. The election was repeated in December, and Van der Bellen won again, by a bigger margin this time. EU leaders evaluated this as a success in the ongoing struggle with the populists. Nonetheless, opinion polls show that the FPÖ is still the strongest party in Austria.

Another multi-billion euro aid package for Greece was approved by EU finance ministers, only just scraping through. The Greek government is fulfilling requirements late and is seen to be dragging its feet. Nonetheless, the money keeps on flowing in order to avert another debt crisis. Fresh talks about debt relief for Greece had to be postponed again at the end of the year - but the Greek economy is slowly starting to grow.

June

"The EU is in a lamentable state," said the president of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, in an interview with euronews. Given the many crises within the EU, and growing tensions among its member states, he painted a grim picture. "The centrifugal, extreme forces are winning elections and referendums," he said. "If we question the heart of the European project, we are playing with the future of the next generation." Schulz has now left Brussels after 22 years in European politics, and plans to embark on a second political career: as German foreign minister, or even the SPD candidate for German chancellor.

A triumph of nationalism in Britain: Brexit is a reality. The "Leave" camp won the referendum. "The sun has risen on an independent UK. And just look at it, even the weather has improved!” crowed leading pro-Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage in London the following morning. "It's a victory for ordinary people, decent people; it's a victory against the big merchant banks, against the big businesses, against big politics." But Farage, a member of the European Parliament, quickly made himself scarce, resigning as leader of the UK Independence Party. Boris Johnson also backed out: The conservative politician, who led the Brexit campaign, didn't want to become prime minister and have to organize the exit. Theresa May took over, and coined the not very illuminating maxim "Brexit means Brexit." The 27 remaining member states said they would not make concessions to Britain, and called on May to present her Brexit plan. Months after the referendum, however, she still doesn't seem to have one. May intends to put in a formal application at the end of March 2017 for Britain to leave the EU.

July

At a summit meeting in Warsaw, NATO decided that it would once again station small bands of troops along its eastern border. This was intended as a signal to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin: this far and no farther. "We are not seeking confrontation with Russia," said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg; rather, NATO wanted a "meaningful and constructive dialogue." Moscow's response was that it, too, was not threatening anyone, but that it felt encircled by the Western alliance. The conflict in eastern Ukraine, where Russia is directing the rebels, remained frozen: No progress was made with the Minsk peace protocol. Sanctions against Russia were extended. Russia and the West also support opposing sides in the war in Syria.

Terrorist attack in Nice. An Islamist terrorist drove a truck into a crowd on the beach promenade. The man, a Tunisian, killed a total of 85 people. France, and the whole of Europe, was stunned. French President François Hollande found himself under increasing pressure: His prime minister, Manuel Valls, was booed at a memorial service in Nice. The right-wing populist National Front is very strong in the south of France. People there are demanding more security.

In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan staved off an attempted coup. He consolidated his power with a wave of arrests and purges. The number of terror attacks by Islamists and Kurds in Turkey increased. The EU criticized Erdogan, but needed him to keep back the migrants. The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security, Federica Mogherini, described this balancing act: "We fully support the democratic and legitimate institutions. However, there is no justification for the response to circumvent fundamental rights and freedoms." Erdogan repeatedly threatened to annul the deal on refugees, but has not done so.

August

Earthquake in central Italy. The little town of Amatrice was almost completely reduced to rubble. Almost 300 people died. It was a heavy blow for an Italy that was already in economic trouble. The Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, promised swift aid, but the people of Amatrice didn't believe him. In 2009 there was an earthquake in nearby Aquila, and families there are still living in emergency shelters.

September

Twenty-seven EU states met in Bratislava for a discussion of the community's objectives following the departure of Britain. A vehement argument erupted over migration policy, lack of solidarity, and the demand for greater sovereignty for individual states. Luxembourg's foreign minister, Jean Asselborn, called for Hungary to be thrown out of the EU on account of the autocratic policies of its national-conservative leader, Viktor Orban. The Hungarian foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto, retaliated, saying: "Jean Asselborn has seriously insulted Hungary and the Hungarian people." The exchange says a great deal about the internal state of the bloc. Countries of the north and south are also in dispute over budgetary policy.

October

CETA is coming. The EU and Canada signed a free trade agreement, after a considerable struggle on the European side. A veto by a Belgian region almost scuppered the agreement. At the signing of the treaty, the Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, remained optimistic: "We are convinced we can demonstrate that international trade strengthens the middle class, and those working hard to join it," he said. CETA must now be ratified by all the EU member states. It is, however, by no means certain that the TTIP trade agreement with the United States will ever be signed. Opposition to it in Europe is growing, and the US president-elect, Donald Trump, is more inclined towards isolation.

The Calais "Jungle" was cleared. Thousands of people from the illegal camp had tried to cross from France to Britain through the Channel Tunnel, or in trucks on ferries. The migrants were redistributed around France, where they are supposed to be processed as asylum seekers. The Jungle had already been dismantled several times in recent years.

November

The European Parliament called for accession talks with Turkey, faltering for the past 11 years, to be frozen, saying that the country had breached fundamental European values. EU foreign ministers didn't go this far; instead, they decided that a new chapter in Turkey's accession negotiations would not be opened until further notice. Only Austria said clearly that Turkey could not become a member of the EU. The EU will continue to work with the Balkan states with a view to their accession.

December

The EU still doesn't have the refugee and migration crisis under control, according to the EU Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker. Hardly anyone is coming via the Balkan route any more, but almost as many are still coming from Africa as in 2015. The EU therefore wants to persuade African countries to prevent the migrants from setting off. Deterrence is the keyword. The EU calls these "migration partnerships."

At the December summit, EU heads of state and government admitted their incapacity to act with regard to the conflict in Syria. They could only stare in disbelief at the actions taken by Russia, Iran and the Syrian regime against the Syrian population. Their response to potential war crimes on the rebel side was equally impotent. "I won't hide the fact that this part of the discussion was very depressing, because we are all seeing something in the 21st century that is shameful, that breaks your heart. It shows that we were unable to act, that we would like to act," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel. She didn't address how this could be done.

Another victory for the populists: in Italy this time. The Socialist prime minister, Matteo Renzi, suffered a crushing defeat in a referendum on the constitution. The Italian people rejected both Renzi's EU-friendly course and his economic policy. The radical Five Star Movement surged ahead. An interim government is now tasked with getting Italy's banking crisis under control. The European Central Bank is continuing with its policy of ultra-cheap money, which supports crisis-hit countries like Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece and France. Northern countries are critical of this policy. The eurozone is creaking dangerously. But the European economy is growing, and unemployment is gradually sinking. "The risks remain high, both internally and externally," said Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank, as the year drew to a close.

Another terror attack shocked the European Union shortly before the end of the year, this time in the German capital, Berlin, where 12 people died and some 50 were injured after a truck drove into a Christmas market in the center of the city. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said the attack, suspected to have been carried out by a Tunisian man shot dead by police in Italy some days later, was all the more devastating because the victims "had gathered there to celebrate the pre-Christmas season, which unites many with peace."

Several EU countries stepped up security measures following the attack, as the bloc mulls over how best to combat terrorism without excessively curbing civil liberties." 

DW

Italy's Renzi to resign after referendum rout

"Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is set to resign on Monday after suffering a crushing defeat in a referendum over constitutional reform, tipping the euro zone's third-largest economy into political turmoil.

His decision to quit after just two-and-a-half years in office deals a blow to the European Union, already reeling from multiple crises and struggling to overcome anti-establishment forces that have battered the Western world this year. (...)

Sunday's referendum was over government plans to reduce the powers of the upper house Senate and regional authorities but was viewed by many people as a chance to register dissatisfaction with Renzi, who has struggled to revive economic growth , and mainstream politics.

"No" won an overwhelming 59.1 percent of the vote, according to the final count. About 33 million Italians, or two-thirds of eligible voters, cast ballots following months of bitter campaigning that pitted Renzi against all major opposition parties, including the anti-establishment 5-Star.

(...)"

Reuters

Ennyien költöztek Európába tavaly

"Tartózkodási engedélyt több ok miatt is kérhet valaki, ám az elmúlt években a legtöbb kérelem a család, a tanulmányok és a munkavégzés miatt érkezett az EU-hoz. Nem változott ez nagyon az Eurostat friss adatai szerint tavaly sem: a 2015-ben 2,6 millió első alkalommal kiadott engedély 29 százaléka családi okok miatt kapott zöld utat, 27 százalék új munkahely, míg 20 százalék az oktatás miatt. A maradék 24 százalékba sok minden beletartozik, így többek közt a nemzetközi védelem is, azaz ha valaki azért menekült el hazájából, mert veszélyben érezte magát.

Az uniós statisztikai hivatal adatai szerint a tavaly kiadott engedélyek száma 12,1 százalékkal magasabb az előző évinél, az újonnan érkezettek pedig leginkább az Egyesült Királyságba mentek. Ez mintegy 633 ezer embert jelent, de nincs sokkal lemaradva Lengyelország (542 ezer) és Franciaország (227 ezer) sem. Érdekesség, hogy a lista első hat helyezettje (az előbbieken túl Németország, Spanyolország és Olaszország) az összes tavaly kiadott engedély háromnegyedét hozta össze.

Teljesen más sorrendet kapunk, ha az adott ország lakosságához viszonyítjuk a kiadott dokumentumok számát. Eszerint Málta a listaelső, hiszen ott ezer lakosra 23,1 új, első alkalommal kiadott letelepedési engedélyt számolt az Eurostat. Ciprus a következő a sorban 18,4-es értékkel, majd Lengyelország (14,3), Svédország (11,3) és az Egyesült Királyság (9,7) érkezik. Az uniós átlag egyébként 5,1, ennél jóval alacsonyabb a magyar, amely a 2 pontot sem éri el. Hazánknál egyébként csak Litvániában, Szlovákiában, Bulgáriában, Horvátországban és Romániában mért alacsonyabb számot az uniós statisztikai hivatal.

Bár elsőre annak tűnhet, a lengyelek előkelő helyezése nem annyira meglepő: a legtöbb igény, közel 500 ezer ugyanis Ukrajnából érkezik. Ők pedig leginkább munka miatt akarnak letelepedési engedélyt kérni, sokuk pedig a közeli Lengyelországban képzeli ideiglenes (?) jövőjét. A második legtöbb befogadott kérelem az USA-ból jött, majd Kína, India, Szíria a további sorrend, de még Brazíliából is közel 60 ezer ember érkezett 2015-ben az EU-ba.

Az amerikaiak igen nagy többsége, már csak a nyelvi könnyebbségek miatt az Egyesült Királyságot választja célpontjának, de a kínaiak és az indiaiak többségének oda szeretne eljutni. A szírek viszont inkább Svédországot választják, a marokkóiak Spanyolországot, a fehéroroszok szinte kivétel nélkül Lengyelországot, míg az oroszok Csehországot, a brazilok pedig Írországot preferálják. Azon talán senki sem lepődik meg, hogy a törökök többsége Németországot célozza meg.

Az is érdekes végeredményhez vezet, ha azt nézzük, hogy az egyes országokból érkezők miért kaptak az EU-tól letelepedési engedélyt.

Csak Marokkóból 68 ezer fő például családi okok miatt jött az öreg kontinensre, az ukránok közül 376 ezer akar dolgozni, míg az oktatásnál Kína az első 102 ezer engedéllyel.

Ki jön Magyarországra?

Hazánkra vonatkozóan tavaly összesen 20 751 letelepedési engedélyt adtak ki az Eurostat adatai szerint, többségét (5 876) oktatási céllal, de sokan a családot jelölték meg (5 715) okként. Munka miatt ennél jóval kevesebben, mindössze 4 209-en jöttek Magyarországra, míg az egyéb kategória 4 951 embert jelentett.

A legtöbb kérelem, 4 285 Kínából érkezett, amit jelentős lemaradással Ukrajna (1 686) követett. A top5-be még az USA (1 679), Oroszország (1 321) és Törökország (988) fért fel, ez az öt ország adta az összes kérelem 52 százalékát."

Napi.hu

Moldova elects pro-Russian Igor Dodon as president

Igor Dodon, the pro-Russian leader of the Party of Socialists, on Sunday became Moldova’s first directly elected president in more than two decades. Dodon won almost 55 percent of votes cast, defeating pro-EU candidate Maia Sandu, who was backed by the European People’s Party. Just over half of eligible Moldovans turned out to polling stations.

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Politico

Bulgaria’s PM quits after pro-Russian candidate wins presidency

Bulgaria looks set to veer sharply back into Moscow’s strategic orbit after Socialist candidate Rumen Radev won the presidency in a landslide on Sunday, forcing the resignation of center-right Prime Minister Boyko Borisov.

According to exit polls after the runoff, Radev won almost 60 percent of the vote. Tsetska Tsacheva, from Borisov’s GERB party, took just over 35 percent.

The result has plunged the impoverished Balkan state into a political crisis that will be closely monitored by the rest of the EU and NATO. The country of 7 million people occupies a sensitive position within the EU because Russia’s influence is unusually strong, due in part to a complex web of commercial ties in the military, financial and energy sectors.

Borisov, a former firefighter and bodyguard, has promised to resign at the next sitting of parliament, probably on Monday or Tuesday. The prime minister congratulated Radev and admitted that his GERB party was now “in opposition to the will of the people.”

The most likely immediate course is for the current President Rosen Plevneliev to appoint cabinet ministers in a caretaker administration, before parliamentary elections early next year. In the meantime, the Socialists will need to try to work with a hotch-potch of parties on the far right, center and with the ethnic Turkish party, to exercise parliamentary influence.

“Bulgaria won. The people overcame apathy, and they overcame fear — that’s the most important thing,” Radev, 53-year-old former air force general, told reporters after his victory. “Despite bluffing by the government about the apocalypse, you voted for change.”

Radev, who gives daredevil airshows in a MiG-29 fighter jet, has given every sign during the election that he will seek to repair damaged ties with the Kremlin, saying that Bulgaria should never allow Russia to be styled as an enemy, and calling for an end to EU sanctions.

He has also taken a robust line on immigration, promising that he will prevent Bulgaria from becoming a “migrant ghetto.”

GERB had become an obvious target for public frustration over corruption. Although Borisov styled himself as a strongman willing to clean up Bulgaria, voters have largely been frustrated by GERB’s inability to reform the judiciary or escape the tentacles of oligarchs.

NATO officials are concerned about the presence of such an openly pro-Russian figure in the presidency and noted that cooperation with Bulgaria could be under strain.

Wasting no time in leaping to the defense of the Kremlin, Radev repeated his call for an end to sanctions immediately after his victory. He also expressed optimism that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin could chart a more positive geostrategic course.

“That gives us hope of reducing conflict in hotspots,” he said.

Politico

Mariano Rajoy, back to the old routine

"The Spanish PM puts the economy, Catalonia and Brexit on the agenda.

After 10 months of political deadlock in Spain, two inconclusive elections, two failed investiture votes in Congress and a putsch that brought down the leader of the main opposition party, Mariano Rajoy on Sunday finally secured a second term as prime minister.

The Federal Committee of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) decided to back a new conservative government to avoid a third election in the country in just over a year. In a historic vote, the about 250-member body approved the motion to lift the block on the second Rajoy-led Conservative government by 139 to 96 votes.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy stayed true to form and played it safe when he named his cabinet on Thursday evening, picking trusted allies for top jobs and putting three topics at the top of his agenda: the continuation of his economic policies, standing up to the Catalan secessionist challenge, and making sure Spain plays its part in the Brexit negotiations."

More on Politico

Trudeau finally signs CETA free trade deal with European Union

"Prime Minister Justin Trudeau revelled in a long-awaited moment Sunday — signing Canada’s free trade deal with the European Union, but not before recognizing the challenges ahead to bring it fully into force.

Trudeau expressed hope that the so-called provisional application of the deal — approval only by the Canadian and European parliaments but not Europe’s 28 states and myriad regional governments — might happen within months.

That, said Trudeau, would result in 98 per cent of the deal coming into force. That’s much higher than the 90-per cent estimate that most European and Canadian officials have said would accompany provisional application of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, known as CETA.

Trudeau had initially expected to sign the deal in Brussels days ago, but the restive Belgian region of Wallonia nearly killed it because its opposition to the pact’s investor-state dispute settlement mechanism gave it a veto under Belgium’s complicated constitution.

After seven arduous years of negotiation, Trudeau joined presidents of the European Council and European Commission, Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker, and signed the massive 1,600-page pact and its accompanying strategic partnership agreement.

The road to full ratification remains long. After Trudeau and his EU counterparts took a moment Sunday to revel in the milestone, the prime minister was willing to acknowledge it would take more than ceremony to fully ratify the deal. “The work is only just beginning right now,” Trudeau said.

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But opposition among anti-trade activists and left-wing political parties in some European countries has been fierce and nearly blocked the deal. On a sleepy Sunday morning in the largely shuttered EU capital, Trudeau’s entourage was greeted by a small but vocal group of protesters at the European Council.

Trudeau acknowledged the discontent but said political leaders had to work to overcome it.

“That leadership that we were able to show between Canada and Europe is not just something that will reassure our own citizens but should be an example to the world of how we can move forward on trade deals that do genuinely benefit everyone,” Trudeau said. With the Liberals and Conservatives both favouring the deal, its approval will sail through Parliament.

But Europe is another matter. The European Parliament must approve CETA. Before leaving Brussels, Trudeau met with its leader, Martin Schulz, the German social democrat."

National Post

Germany's Oettinger to take over EU Commission budget post

"German Günther Oettinger is to replace Kristalina Georgieva as the European Commission's budget commissioner. Bulgaria's Georgieva resigned on Friday and will move to become CEO of the World Bank."

Deutsche Welle

Sakharov Prize To Yazidi Women

"The European Parliament has awarded its Sakharov Prize for freedom of thought and expression to Nadia Murad and Lamiya Aji Bashar, two women from Iraq's Yazidi community who suffered attack and persecution by ISIS.
Murad and Bashar were among thousands of women and girls abducted and held as sexual slaves by ISIS fighters after they rounded up Yazidis in their village of Kocho, near Sinjar in northwest Iraq, in the summer of 2014.
Murad has also called for the recognition of the massacre of Yazidis as genocide."

(...)

NDTV

Lithuania’s agrarians pull off surprise election win

Lithuania’s center-right opposition Peasants and Greens party said it would begin negotiations to form a coalition government on Monday after it declared victory in the second round of the country’s general election on Sunday.

The Peasants and Greens won 54 seats in the 141-member parliament. The conservative Homeland Union came in second with 31 seats, the ruling Social Democratic party won 17 seats, AFP reported. Turnout was 38 percent.

“Our government will be transparent, responsible, professional and resolute,” said Saulius Skvernelis, the party’s candidate to be the next prime minister, according to Reuters.

The party had already emerged as the biggest in some constituencies in the first round of the vote, held on October 9.

If Skvernelis becomes prime minister, it will mean that for the first time in 15 years, the country’s leader will not be a member of the Social Democrats or the Homeland Union.

A new government is expected to take over from the current coalition of the Social Democrats, Labour and Order and Justice parties before the end of 2016.

Politico.eu

Turkey coup attempt 2016

Bridges over the Bosphorus strait in Istanbul were blocked by troops late evening local time on Friday 15. July. "Fighter jets and helicopters were seen flying over the Turkish capital, Ankara, and gunshots heard. Soon after, Prime Minister Binali Yildirim announced that an attempt to overthrow the government was under way. A faction of the army then said, via a state broadcaster, that it had seized power to protect democracy from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

A curfew, martial law and the preparation of a new constitution was announced. Mr Erdogan, who was on holiday in a seaside resort town, called on his supporters to take to the streets in protest and returned to Istanbul. Over the course of a violent night, TV stations were raided by soldiers, explosions heard in Istanbul and Ankara, protesters shot at, the parliament and presidential buildings fired upon, a military helicopter shot down and the Turkish military chief taken hostage.

For the plot to succeed, the army faction needed public support or wider military backing. Neither materialised. Opposition parties also condemned the coup. In the early hours of Saturday morning, groups of soldiers involved began to surrender. Troops abandoned their tanks with their hands up.

Security forces also took back key installations and bases, including the military headquarters. By Saturday evening, some of the same places that had seen such chaos the night before were filled with jubilant supporters of Mr Erdogan."

BBC webpage

EU orders Apple to pay up to €13 billion in taxes

The European Commission has ordered Ireland to claw back up to €13 billion (£11.1 billion; $14.5 billion) in back taxes from Apple.
The European Union has never ordered a company to pay this much before, with Tuesday's decision smashing the €1.4 billion (£1.2 billion; $1.6 billion) levied against the French energy giant EDF in 2015.
Margrethe Vestager, the EU's competition commissioner, announced the figure at a European Commission press conference.
"Member states cannot give tax benefits to selected companies — this is illegal under EU state aid rules," Vestager said in a press release ahead of her speech. "The commission's investigation concluded that Ireland granted illegal tax benefits to Apple, which enabled it to pay substantially less tax than other businesses over many years. In fact, this selective treatment allowed Apple to pay an effective corporate tax rate of 1% on its European profits in 2003 down to 0.005 per cent in 2014."
Apple said the decision would affect how much it invests in Europe and how many people it employs in the region.
An Apple representative said: "The European Commission has launched an effort to rewrite Apple's history in Europe, ignore Ireland's tax laws, and upend the international tax system in the process. The commission's case is not about how much Apple pays in taxes — it's about which government collects the money. It will have a profound and harmful effect on investment and job creation in Europe."Apple follows the law and pays all of the taxes we owe wherever we operate. We will appeal, and we are confident the decision will be overturned."
Ireland's finance minister, Michael Noonan, said in a statement: "I disagree profoundly with the commission's decision." He added: "The decision leaves me with no choice but to seek Cabinet approval to appeal the decision before the European courts."
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