Friday, July 22, 2011

Euro leaders agree second Greece bailout

Following weeks of political and market turbulence, eurozone leaders on Thursday undertook radical steps to safeguard the single currency agreeing the beginnings of a European Monetary Fund and a fresh bailout for Greece. With the one-day emergency summit representing something of a make-or-brake gathering for the 17-nation eurozone, leaders were quick to underline the far-reaching and "credible" nature of the agreement.
"For the first time, the politics and the markets are coming together," said European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso, with markets having to date doubted the fundamental commitment of leaders to saving the eurozone. EU council president Herman Van Rompuy said the deal proved "we will not waver in defence of our common currency".
Under the agreement, Greece is to get a fresh bailout, but with a lower interest rate (around 3.5%) and with a minimum of 15 years to pay back the loans. "The total official financing will amount to an estimated 109 billion euro," says the final agreement.
Pushed by Germany, the private sector will also be involved but eurozone leaders stressed several times that private sector contribution will be "voluntary" and will not be part of any potential future bailouts for other countries. There remains a question mark over whether rating agencies will view the deal as a default, having previously said they take a dim view of involving the private sector. German chancellor Angela Merkel indicated it was a risk she is willing to take. "We all know rating agencies are going to take a close look at this. I can't prejudge their rating. But I think that for markets it's important to achieve sustainability and for that it's very important to have private sector involved."
'European monetary fund'
Eurozone leaders also attempted to put out potential future fires by agreeing an overhaul of the eurozone's €440bn bailout fund so that it can act pre-emptively. Under the deal, which will have to be ratified by national parliaments, the fund will be entitled to help out countries with credit line before they get to the stage of needing long-term aid and recapitalise banks through loans to governments. This aid could also be supplied to countries not in a bailout programme, something that is not the case currently.
"We have agreed to create the beginnings of a European Monetary Fund," said French president Nicolas Sarkozy. Merkel, who forced Paris to back down on a proposed bank levy in return for giving new powers to the rescue fund, said the move was "historic". "What we are doing now is an example for deeper integration - handing over and transferring more competences to EU institutions. This is a historic day."
Barroso, who on the eve of the summit said the history would harshly judge the leaders if they failed to reach a deal, urged them to "defend and implement" it with "determination".
Greek prime minister George Papandreou said the deal will "mean (a) lightening of the burden on the Greek people" whom he referred to as "proud and industrious".
While European stocks rallied when draft conclusions were leaked earlier in the day, some commentators were already highly critical of the deal. Sony Kapoor, managing director of policy group Re-Define Europe, said: "EU leaders have missed the boat, yet again." "The leaders pay lip service to the need for growth and investment in Greece but this is no Marshall Plan. The debt overhang will hurt growth and investment even as EIB and other EU funds seek to stimulate it."
He also said the changes to the rescue fund were based on "excessive conditionality" with Merkel stressing several times that the enhanced fund will need unanimity from member states in order to act.
Euobserver

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Az egész társadalom felrobbant Cipruson

A múlt héten felrobbant fegyverraktár mindent felkavart. Kedd este a nicosiai elnöki palota kerítésének két oldalán több ezer kormánypárti és több ezer ellentüntető gyűlt össze. A kormányellenesek hosszú távra rendezkedtek be: terveik szerint az államelnök lemondásáig folytatják. A robbanás után a szigeten akadozik az áramellátás. A bajban eddig egyedül az örök ellenségnek számító ciprusi törökök segítettek.

Friday, July 8, 2011

Farewell, European Union

Economic default. Street riots. Political disunity: the EuroGeo-Political world as we know it is ending. We’re in the process of watching Greece default. Portugal’s Next. Ireland’s after that. In fewer than 16 months, the European Union will be no more.
As we predicted on June 29, and the Moody’s ratings service essentially confirmed by dropping the country’s rating to junk-status, Greece is set to default (even the current “best case” French scenario means is predicted to end in a “selective default” situation). And soon. Given that the “not-possible-to-think-about is suddenly exactly what we’re-thinking-about-and-planning-for", we have to wonder who’s next – now that default is suddenly an option?
In July 5 Portugal joined Greece at the “bottom of the economic barrel” (per Moody’s), disqualifying the country from an index of sovereign debt and generating a mass selloff in the markets. Portugal need not feel financially lonely, however; it seems that economic misery apparently loves company. Ireland, of course, is next.

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Whatever it was – why the world ignored the obvious economic writing on the wall in the case of Ireland, and, until only a few weeks ago, that of Greece and Portugal - cannot change what will be. These peaceful economic times are over. Last week’s riots in the streets of Greece are just the beginning of the end for the European Union. Get ready.

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The European Union’s “core” members – Germany and France – would do well to stop financially finagling bail-out-package-after-bail-out-package for first Greece, then Portugal, then…and should instead start focusing on what’s next post-European-Union as we know it. Delaying the inevitable economic and financial pain will be a financially expensive, politically explosive, and potentially globally dangerous and destabilizing exercise. The world has to start planning for a defaulted currency, and stop hoping it simply won’t happen.