Germany pushes for EU migrant policy change

German Chancellor Angela Merkel vowed Wednesday there would be no tolerance for anti-migrant violence after facing a far-right protest during a visit to a refugee centre. About 200 people massed in the eastern town of Heidenau, some booing and shouting "traitor, traitor" and "we are the mob" as she arrived at the shelter, in a show of defiance over a record influx of asylum-seekers.
Germany is at the forefront in developing new ways to tackle what analysts are calling the biggest migrant crisis since World War II. “The majority of the Germans see that these people need help,” Orkan Kösemen, a project manager at the Bertelsmann Stiftung NGO. “They know that Germany has enough economic power to take on refugees." “The majority of the population, they’re not those protesters. But the numbers of refugees are high, and I suppose you can’t accept them every year. But still, we’re not in a situation where these protests are nationwide.”It’s not the first time far-right supporters have taken to the street in protest at Merkel’s migration policy.
But Germany's policy is very different to that of Slovakia or Hungary, where the authorities are rushing to finish a wired fence on their border with Serbia.“The situation today is much better that the situation we had in the beginning of the 90s, where many refugees who had to leave their country because of the civil war in the Balkans came to Germany,” Professor Christine Langenfeld, the chairperson of the Expert Council of German Foundations on Integration and Immigration told RFI.
“We have radical right-wing politicians and criminals who are trying to take advantage of the situation,” she explains. “But at the moment a vast majority, and this is shown by polls, wants to help refugees. But they want that a distinction to be made between those who come for economic reason and those who really need protection.”
Germany expects to receive 800,000 asylum applications this year and Merkel appears to be leading the way for other EU leaders on this issue .She met French President François Hollande on Monday and called for the EU members to share the burden of migration in a fair way.The two countries will draft common proposals which could include quotas and the construction of EU-run registration centres in Greece and Italy. This quota system was rejected by EU leaders a few months ago but Germany seems determined to push for it.
“The current asylum system, the Dublin system, where refugees can only ask for asylum in the first EU country that they enter, is not working any more even though this system, kept away many refugees from Germany,” explains Kösemen. “Secondly, she currently has enough political power to do so. If you look at other large European states, there governments face strong domestic political opposition on the issue of migration.”
The current EU asylum rules are called the Dublin regulations - under them, migrants can only apply for asylum in the first EU member state they enter, and face deportation if they try to apply in another. Given the huge number of refugees arriving in Greece and Italy, that system does not work any more. That's why Germany has suspended that rule for Syrian refugees.
Some, like migration expert Tim Finch, are calling for new rules.In The Guardian newspaper he argues in favour of a system where refugees would apply for asylum from refugee camps outside Europe - and Europe would in return welcome more asylum seekers.“This is a plan that I’m proposing without much optimism that it will be picked up,” Finch told RFI. “But I think over time we will move more in this direction. We have only two alternatives, either what we have now, which is allowing this chaos to persist, and in the end accepting that people will get through and giving some sort of status anyway. Or there’s what I’m proposing, which, to me, is very much better.”
RFI

Population growth: UK to become biggest country in European Union by 2050

 

 "The UK will become the most populous country in the European Union by 2050, according to new estimates. That is, as long as we are still in the EU by then.

Eurostat's predicts that the UK's population will continue to rise, from 65 million in 2015 to 67m in 2020. By 2050 it will have reached more than 77m. In 2080, Eurostat believes the UK will have a population of more than 85m.

Conversely, Germany's population is in decline, marginally between 2015 and 2020 (80.7m to 80.6m) but by 2050 it will have dropped to 74.7m. By 2080, the country's population will have reached 65.4m.

The UK's population is growing through a combination of natural increases and migration. Eurostat's demography report also shows that population growth in Germany, Italy and Austria was “solely” due to migration in 2013: the natural population change was actually negative. Germany had the biggest number of migrants that year (692,7000) followed by the UK (526,000) and France (526,000)." (...)

Link

Mediterranean migrant crisis: EU refugee quotas to be proposed

"The European Commission will make the controversial proposal that EU member countries should take in refugees under a quota scheme.
The UN estimates that 60,000 people have already tried to cross the Mediterranean this year.
Migrants are being driven to make the journey by "horrific abuse" in Libya, according to Amnesty International.
More than 1,800 migrants have died this year in the Mediterranean, a 20-fold increase on the same period in 2014.
The European Commission's migration policy, to be announced on Wednesday, will also propose organising legal means for migrants to come to Europe so they do not turn to traffickers. However, it will need to be agreed by EU states. European leaders will discuss the proposals at a summit at the end of June.
The measures proposed by the EC are the latest in a series of steps designed to stop migrants drowning in the Mediterranean. More than 200,000 migrants fleeing conflict or poverty from countries such as Syria, Eritrea, Nigeria and Somalia are estimated to have crossed the Mediterranean last year, with thousands dying making the journey.
Quotas would be determined using a number of factors, including a country's population, economic indicators and the number of asylum seekers previously accepted.
Germany keenly supports the idea of quotas, having received 200,000 asylum applications last year.
Countries such as Italy and Malta, where large numbers of migrants arrive by boat, have also called for EU members to share responsibility for migrants more evenly. Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann has described a quota as "a question of fairness", adding that asylum is "not an act of mercy but a human right".
However, other EU countries are fiercely opposed to the idea of quotas. A UK government spokesman said: "The UK has a proud history of offering asylum to those who need it most, but we do not believe that a mandatory system of resettlement is the answer." "We will oppose any EU Commission proposals to introduce a non-voluntary quota." Leaders in Hungary, Slovakia and Estonia have also objected to a quota system, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban calling it "a crazy idea".
On Monday the EU foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, will ask the UN Security Council to permit the use of force against people traffickers operating out of Libya. Without a UN mandate, military action to destroy or halt traffickers' boats in Libyan or international waters would be illegal.
Libya's ambassador to the UN, Ibrahim Dabbashi, told the BBC that his country is against the proposal. "The Libyan government has not been consulted by the European Union. They have left us in the dark about what their intentions are, what kind of military actions they are going to take in our territorial waters, so that is very worrying," he told the World Service's Newsday programme.
Amnesty International has warned that military action could leave migrants trapped in Libya in desperate conditions.
(...)"
BBC

Exit poll: UK Conservatives just shy of a majority

"The exit poll in Britain's general election predicted late Thursday that the Conservative Party will win 316 seats, just short of a majority in the House of Commons, meaning that David Cameron will likely remain prime minister. (...)
Cameron's Conservatives would need 326 for an outright majority in the 650-seat House of Commons, although in practice it's about 323: the Speaker does not vote, and Irish nationalists Sinn Fein, who had five seats before the election, do not participate.
If the exit poll is accurate, the Conservative Party would be in a commanding position to form the next government by seeking coalition partners from smaller parties. "
Link to Fox

European Union GDP growth to hit 1.8 per cent this year

"The European Commission expects GDP to rise 1.8 per cent across the European Union, and by 1.5 per cent across the euro area as a whole. It's expected to benefit from low oil prices cutting business costs and giving consumers more disposable income, stronger exports as a result of the weak euro, and loose monetary policy from the European Central Bank.
"Oil prices remain relatively low, global growth is steady, the euro has continued to depreciate, and economics policies in the European Union are supportive," it said.
"On the monetary side, quantitative easing by the European Central Bank is having a significant impact on financial markets, contributing to lower interest rates and expectations of improving credit conditions."
And it said inflation - which recently crawled out of negative territory - will stay close to zero during the first half of 2015, before picking up towards the second half of the year.
However the European Commission slashed cash-strapped Greece's growth forecast to just 0.5 per cent for 2015, down from 2.5 per cent three months earlier."
Link - NewsEconomics

EU parliament urges Turkey to recognise 'Armenian genocide'

"The European Parliament on Wednesday urged Turkey to use the centenary of Ottoman-era massacres to "recognise the Armenian genocide" and help promote reconciliation between the two peoples.
The parliament voted "by a wide majority," according to the session chair, in favour of the resolution as tension grows over the characterisation of the tragedy ahead of the 100th anniversary of the 1915 killings of Armenians during World War I. (...)"
Yahoo

Iceland drops EU membership bid

"Iceland has announced it is dropping its bid to join the European Union in line with pledges made two years ago by its then-new eurosceptic government.
Iceland first applied for EU membership in 2009 but its foreign minister, Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson, said in a statement that the centre-right government had informed current EU president Latvia and the European Commission of its decision to annul the application. “Iceland’s interests are better served outside the European Union,” the minister wrote on his website. (...)"
The Guardian

Official Calls for a European Union Army

"The European Union needs its own army to face up to Russia and other threats as well as restore the bloc's foreign policy standing around the world, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told a German newspaper on Sunday.

Arguing that NATO was not enough because not all members of the transatlantic defense alliance are in the E.U., Juncker said a common E.U. army would also send important signals to the world.

"A joint E.U. army would show the world that there would never again be a war between E.U. countries," Juncker told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper. "Such an army would also help us to form common foreign and security policies and allow Europe to take on responsibility in the world."

Juncker said a common E.U. army could serve as a deterrent and would have been useful during the Ukraine crisis. "With its own army, Europe could react more credibly to the threat to peace in a member state or in a neighboring state. "One wouldn't have a European army to deploy it immediately. But a common European army would convey a clear message to Russia that we are serious about defending our European values."

The 28-nation E.U. already has battle groups that are manned on a rotational basis and meant to be available as a rapid reaction force. But they have never been used in a crisis. E.U. leaders have said they want to boost the common security policy by improving rapid response capabilities.

But Britain, along with France one of the two main military powers in the bloc, has been wary of giving a bigger military role to the E.U., fearing it could undermine NATO. German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen welcomed Juncker's proposal: "Our future as Europeans will at some point be with a European army," she told German radio."

Newsweek

Syriza victory: Turning point for EU?

This was an extraordinary victory for the radical left in Greece - probably beyond its own expectations. Alexis Tsipras will now try to lead an anti-austerity revolution, backed by a strong democratic mandate. He said in his victory speech that he is willing to negotiate with Greece's European partners. The question is: how much are they prepared to compromise with him?
Syriza wants to reverse cuts in public services and increase salaries and pensions again. It wants to write off a large chunk of Greece's huge public debt, most of which it now owes to other governments in the eurozone.
(...)
Link to BBC

ECB executive warns over 'weakened' European Union

"A top official at the European Central Bank (ECB) has warned that unemployment and low growth are undermining the foundations of the European Union. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Benoit Coeure, a member of the executive board of the ECB, said the bank could not create lasting growth as that was down to governments. He urged governments to speed up economic reform.,
On Thursday the ECB launched a €1.1 trillion economic stimulus plan. Mr Coeure said: "We've done our part on Thursday. Others have to do their part." He said there was "nothing" the ECB could do to lift the growth rate of Europe in a "lasting way". "We can make it cheaper to invest, but people have to want to invest and that is the role of finance ministers, that is the role of government," Mr Coeure said.
'Entrenched unemployment'
Mr Coeure said the ECB would be making that point at the Eurogroup meeting on Monday when the ECB holds talks with finance ministers from the eurozone. "With low growth, entrenched unemployment - people being dragged out of the labour market - we are seeing the whole political foundation of the European project being weakened. This cannot last for too long," he said. "Being patient is just a risk we don't want to take."
Record low interest rates have failed to boost the 19-country euro area. So, the ECB plans to buy €60bn bonds each month from banks until the end of September 2016, or even longer, in what is called quantitative easing (QE). QE in theory increases the supply of money, something that keeps interest rates low and encourages borrowing and therefore spending."
BBC

ECB unveils massive QE boost for eurozone

The European Central Bank (ECB) will inject at least €1.1 trillion (£834bn) into the ailing eurozone economy.
The ECB will buy €60bn bonds each month from banks until the end of September 2016, or even longer, in what is called quantitative easing (QE).
QE in theory increases the supply of money, something that keeps interest rates low and encourages borrowing and therefore spending.
The news sent the euro to an 11-year low against the against the US dollar.
Record low eurozone rates have failed to boost the 19-country euro area. The ECB also said it would keep eurozone interest rates at 0.05%, a record low. Rates have been at that level since September 2014.  ECB president Mario Draghi said the programme would begin in March.
Earlier this month, figures showed the eurozone was suffering deflation, creating the danger that growth would stall as businesses and consumers shut their wallets, as they waited for prices to fall.
Mr Draghi said the programme would be conducted "until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation", which the ECB has pledged to maintain at close to 2%.
Shares rose in response to the news and bond yields, which are linked to the amount governments pay to borrow, fell, particularly those of the weakest countries including Italy, Spain and Portugal.
(...)"
Link to BBC

Politics of Europe on the top of security risks

"Just two years ago, Ian Bremmer, the head of Eurasia Group, said political risk in the developed world was "overstated." Today, things are a bit different. "Geopolitics is back," Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan write in Eurasia Group's annual list of the top risks. "As 2015 begins, political conflict among the world's great powers is in play more than at any time since the end of the Cold War."
Russia, China, the Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL), and the emerging markets are major risks in the coming year, but the biggest one is Europe because of increased political instability, according to Bremmer and Kupchan. We've put together Bremmer and Kupchan's top 10 risks for 2015, along with key explanations and — bonus — a list of red herrings.
1. The politics of Europe
"Anxiety is again on the rise over Europe's economics, but there is no sense of crisis to force political leaders to work together," Bremmer writes. Additionally, anti-EU political parties are becoming more popular, while some governments are increasingly growing to resent Germany's dominant influence. On top of all that, "Russia and ISIS will add to Europe's security worries," Bremmer writes."
2. Russia
3. The effect of China slowdown
4. The weaponization of finance
5. ISIS, beyond Iraq and Syria (Yemen, Jordan, Saudi Arabia)
6. Weak incumbents (Brazil, Turkey, Colombia, South Africa, Nigeria)
7. The rise of strategic sectors
8. Saudi Arabia versus Iran
9. Taiwan and China
10. Turkey
Link to BusinessInsider