Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Banks queue up for cheap ECB loans
Bejegyezte: Krissons dátum: 10:20 0 megjegyzés
Címkék: ECB, Financial crises
Friday, December 9, 2011
Europe's great divorce
In an effort to stabilise the euro zone, France, Germany and 21 other countries have decided to draft their own treaty to impose more central control over national budgets. Britain and three others have decided to stay out. In the coming weeks, Britain may find itself even more isolated. Sweden, the Czech Republic and Hungary want time to consult their parliaments and political parties before deciding on whether to join the new union-within-the-union.
So two decades to the day after the Maastricht Treaty was concluded, launching the process towards the single European currency, the EU's tectonic plates have slipped momentously along same the fault line that has always divided it—the English Channel.
Confronted by the financial crisis, the euro zone is having to integrate more deeply, with a consequent loss of national sovereignty to the EU (or some other central co-ordinating body); Britain, which had secured a formal opt-out from the euro, has decided to let them go their way.
Whether the agreement does anything to stabilise the euro is moot. The agreement is heavily tilted towards budget discipline and austerity. It does little to generate money in the short term to arrest the run on sovereigns, nor does it provide a longer-term perspective of jointly-issued bonds. Much will depend on how the European Central Bank responds in the coming days and weeks.
Some doubt remains over whether and how the "euro-plus" zone will have access to EU institutions—such as the European Commission, which conducts economic assessments and recommends action, and the European Court of Justice, which Germany hopes will ensure countries adopt proper balanced-budget rules—over Britain's objections.
But especially for France, on the brink of losing its AAA credit rating and now the junior partner to Germany, this is a famous political victory. President Nicolas Sarkozy had long favoured the creation of a smaller, "core" euro zone, without the awkward British, Scandinavians and eastern Europeans that generally pursue more liberal, market-oriented policies. And he has wanted the core run on an inter-governmental basis, ie by leaders rather than by supranational European institutions. This would allow France, and Mr Sarkozy in particular, to maximise its impact. Mr Sarkozy made substantial progress on both fronts. The president tried not to gloat when he emerged at 5am to explain that an agreement endorsed by all 27 members of the EU had proved impossible because of British obstruction. “You cannot have an opt-out and then ask to participate in all the discussion about the euro that you did not want to have, and which you also criticised,” declared the French president.
With the entry next year of Croatia, which will sign its accession treaty today, the EU is still growing, said Mr Sarkozy. “The bigger Europe is, the less integrated it can be. That is an obvious truth.”
For Britain the benefit of the bargain in Brussels is far from clear. It took a good half-hour after the end of Mr Sarkozy's appearance for Mr Cameron to emerge and explain his action. The prime minister claimed he had taken a “tough decision but the right one” for British interests—particularly for its financial-services industry. In return for his agreement to change the EU treaties, Mr Cameron had wanted a number of safeguards for Britain. When he did not get them, he used his veto.
After much studied vagueness on his part about Britain's objectives, Mr Cameron's demand came down to a protocol that would ensure Britain would be given a veto on financial-services regulation (see PDF copy here). The British government has become convinced that the European Commission, usually a bastion of liberalism in Europe, has been issuing regulations hostile to the City of London under the influence of its French single-market commissioner, Michel Barnier. And yet strangely, given the accusation that Brussels was taking aim at the heart of the British economy, almost all of the new rules issued so far have been passed with British approval (albeit after much bitter backroom fighting). Tactically, too, it seemed odd to make a stand in defence of the financiers that politicians, both in Britain and across the rest of European, prefer to denounce.
Mr Cameron said he is “relaxed” about the separation. The EU has always been about multiple speeds; he was glad Britain had stayed out of the euro and out of the passport-free Schengen area. He said that life in the EU, particularly the single market, will continue as normal. “We wish them well as we want the euro zone to sort out its problems, to achieve stability and growth that all of Europe needs.” The drawn faces of senior officials seemed to say otherwise.
The 23 members of the new pact, if they act as a block, can outvote Britain. They are divided among themselves, of course. But their habit of working together and cutting deals will, inevitably, begin to weigh against Britain over time.
Mr Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, have given notice of their desire for the euro zone to act in all the domains that would normally be the remit of all 27 members—for example, labour-market regulations and the corporate-tax base.
Britain may assume it will benefit from extra business for the City, should the euro zone ever pass a financial-transaction tax. But what if the new club starts imposing financial regulations among the 17 euro-zone members, or the 23 members of the euro-plus pact? That could begin to force euro-denominated transactions into the euro zone, say Paris or Frankfurt. Britain would, surely, have had more influence had the countries of the euro zone remained under an EU-wide system.
It says much about the dire state of the debate on Europe within Britain's Conservative party that, as Mr Cameron set out to Brussels, another Tory MP portentously invoked the memory of Neville Chamberlain, who infamously came back from Munich with empty assurances from Adolf Hitler. Mr Cameron may have made a grievous mistake with regard to Britain's long-term interest. But at least nobody can accuse him of returning from Brussels with a piece of paper in his hand.
Economist
Bejegyezte: Krissons dátum: 17:16 0 megjegyzés
Címkék: Croatia, Czech Republic, Employment, Enlargement, European Council, France, Germany, Hungary, Sweden, Taxation, United Kingdom
Monday, December 5, 2011
Surprise victors in Slovenia poll
A centre-left party led by a prominent businessman and mayor has nabbed a surprise victory in Slovenian parliamentary elections, reflecting mounting concern among voters over the economy in the small EU country. Positive Slovenia, the party led by the former head of the country's largest retailer and mayor of the capital, Ljubljana, took 28.5% of the vote, according to nearly complete results.
Positive Slovenia did not win enough votes outright to form a government on its own, setting up a scramble for coalition partners. In winning Slovenia's first snap election since becoming independent from the former Yugoslavia in 1991, Positive Slovenia will have to tackle the country's mounting debt, unemployment and a looming recession.
Mr Jankovic has promised swift reform, including austerity measures: "The results show that Slovenia will go in the right direction. It is obvious that the citizens want an efficient state." Serbia-born Mr Jankovic won prominence in Slovenia first as the head of the country's biggest retailer, Merkator, running the company successfully for eight years, before he was removed from the post in 2005 by Mr Jansa over disagreements that Mr Jankovic claimed were politically motivated.The 58-year-old economist has served as the mayor of Ljubljana since 2006.
The snap vote was called after the centre-left government of premier Borut Pahor was toppled over economic troubles and allegations of corruption. The state electoral commission said the turnout was around 65%. Mr Pahor has said that he has done his best as premier to battle the global economic downturn and the European debt crisis. Mr Pahor's Social Democrats were third with 10.5% of the vote, results showed. Mr Pahor said this was more than he had expected. He offered to meet Mr Jankovic to discuss possible future cooperation.
Bejegyezte: Krissons dátum: 13:14 0 megjegyzés
Címkék: Slovenia
A korrupció lett a horvát kormány veszte
Nem sikerült hatalmon maradnia Horvátországban Jadranka Kosor kormányának. A négy pártot tömörítő ellenzéki győztes Kukurikú-koalíció nagyjából harminc mandátummal többet szerzett, mint a bukott kormánypárt. A balközép-liberális szövetség ilyen arányú győzelemmel egymaga tud kormányozni, de egyben egyedül kell választ adnia rengeteg politikai, szociális és gazdasági kérdésre.
„A legfontosabb dolog, hogy nem sikerült megalázniuk minket” – idézte a Reuters a távozó kormányfő szavait, amivel elismerte vereségét. A Jadranka Kosor mögött álló Horvát Demokratikus Közösség (HDZ) az előzetes eredmények alapján 47 parlamenti helyet szerzett szemben a Kukurikú-koalíció 76-78 helyével.
A vasárnap lezajlott választás klasszikus értelemben vett protestszavazás volt. A Guardian írása szerint a szavazók a gazdaság pocsék állapota, a magas munkanélküliség és elsősorban a hihetetlen mértékű korrupció miatt büntették a HDZ-t, akinek saját volt és jelenlegi politikusai is belekeveredtek jó néhány vizsgálatba.
A megörökölt problémák miatt a Kukurikú-koalíció valóban nincs könnyű helyzetben, de evvel ők is tisztában vannak. „Nem fogunk cserbenhagyni titeket ígérem. Lehet, hogy hibázni fogunk, de nem állhatunk egyhelyben. Nem lesznek kifogások” – nyilatkozta Zoran Milanović a kormányfői szék várományosa miután biztos lett választási győzelme.
Horvátország államadósság besorolása a Standard & Poor's elemzése szerint csak a BBB-kategóriát éri el, ami csupán egy szinttel van a bóvli szint fölött. A gazdaság a harmadik negyedévben a GDP-nek csak 0,6 százalékával növekedett, az előrejelzés pedig jövőre még kisebb, 0,5 százalékos GDP bővüléssel számol, a munkanélküliségi ráta pedig már így is 17,4 százalékos a Bloomberg szerint.
„A piacokat egy ideig fellelkesíti majd a koalíciós győzelem és a kellően nagy parlamenti többség” – nyilatkozta Tim Ash a londoni RBS elemzője. Ash szerint Milanovićnak arra kellene használnia az így nyert időt, hogy megegyezzen az IMF-fel valamilyen finanszírozási keretről. Ettől egyébként Jadranka Kosor korábban elzárkózott, de Milanović most érdeklődőnek mutatkozik.
Az esetleges IMF beavatkozást az ország egy éves GDP-jét elérő államadósság, illetve a 6,2 százalékos államháztartási hiány is indokolná. Ezekkel a mutatókkal pedig csak akkor lehet majd elkerülni a hitelintézetek leminősítését, ha szigorú, megszorításokat is tartalmazó, költségvetést fogadnak el márciusra.
Bejegyezte: Krissons dátum: 13:09 0 megjegyzés
Címkék: Croatia
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Maratonra nincs idő
Nicolas Sarkozy francia elnök csütörtöki és Angela Merkel német kancellár tegnapi beszédéből kiolvasható volt, hogy noha mindketten látják, az Európai Unió szerződéseit meg kell reformálni, abban még nem egyeztek meg, miként történjék. Amire talán sor kerül hétfőn, amikor találkoznak Párizsban.
felől, hogy euróapokalipszisről lehet szó, egyikük sem hagyott kételyt beszédében. A francia elnök a délkelet-franciaországi Toulon városában leszögezte, Európát a jelenlegi euróválság „elsöpörheti”, ha nem hajlandó a változásra. És ezt a változást heteken belül meg kell tennie. A német kancellár ugyanakkor Berlinben az euróövezeti tagországok integrációjának maratoni hosszúságú, évekig tartó folyamatáról beszélt, aminek hallatán nyilván sokak fejében megfordult a gondolat, vajon van-e még idő egy ilyen hosszú futásra, amikor a szakadék egy sprintnyi távolságra került. A francia elnök a kontinens elé vetítette totális hanyatlásának sorsát, amikor azt mondta: „Ha Európa nem változik elég gyorsan, akkor a globális történelmet Európa nélkül írják.” Majd hozzátette, Európának nagyobb szolidaritásra van szüksége, és ez több fegyelmezettséget jelent.
(...)
www.mno.hu
Bejegyezte: Krissons dátum: 14:53 0 megjegyzés
Címkék: France, Germany, Reform Treaty