"Defying Chinese threats of retaliation against European wines and industrial materials, the European Union is preparing to begin on Thursday morning a broad investigation into whether Chinese companies have been exporting solar panels for less than it costs to make them.
The case would be one of the largest trade actions in European history and could lead to steep tariffs on much of China’s $20 billion in annual exports of solar products to Europe, four people familiar with the dispute said Wednesday.
The anti-dumping case, which follows a series of bankruptcies and factory closings by European and U.S. solar panel manufacturers, would broaden what has already become one of the biggest sticking points in trade relations between China and the United States. The U.S. Commerce Department imposed preliminary anti-dumping tariffs in May of at least 31 percent on Chinese solar panels, in addition to preliminary anti-subsidy tariffs of 2.9 percent to 4.73 percent that were imposed in March.
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The Union also takes longer than the United States to investigate such cases. Preliminary tariffs could be imposed in Europe next May, and final tariffs would not be set until December of next year.
E.U. officials declined to comment on the solar panel issue. Regarding the possibility of Chinese retaliation, they repeated the Union’s standard position that foreign countries should impose trade restrictions only if they follow procedures that comply with the World Trade Organization’s rules.
The United States and the Union each follow elaborate, quasi-judicial procedures for anti-dumping and anti-subsidy cases, taking voluminous statements from affected companies before acting, and following detailed rules for setting any tariffs. China’s methods for assessing trade penalties are relatively mysterious, and have been the subject of periodic European and American criticism.
The Union is preparing to start the investigation in response to a complaint filed by a coalition of about 20 European companies led by SolarWorld, a German maker of solar panels. SolarWorld, which also has operations in Oregon, had previously set up a coalition of solar panel producers in the United States that used a legal filing to force the Commerce Department to file the cases there.
Chen Huiqing, deputy director for solar products at the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, said at an industry conference in Guangzhou two weeks ago that the Chinese industry had sent a team of representatives to Brussels in one last bid to talk European officials out of starting a trade case. She warned that Chinese solar panel manufacturers already faced declining profit margins, shortages of capital and weakening foreign demand.
Chinese companies played a tiny role in the global solar power industry until five years ago, when they began a surge that has now brought them two-thirds of the global market. That rapid growth has been accompanied by a steep plunge in wholesale prices for solar panels, which have dropped by up to three-quarters in the past four years.
Retail prices have fallen much more slowly, as the bulk of the cost of a solar panel system lies in installation, and those costs have not fallen nearly as fast.
Chinese industry officials and regulators have periodically denied allegations that they are selling solar panels below cost in foreign markets, insisting that their huge investments in big new factories have brought down costs. But big Chinese solar companies have been posting heavy losses, particularly in the second quarter.
Frank Haugwitz, a solar industry consultant based in Beijing, said that if the Union imposed tariffs, it would be a serious blow to a Chinese industry already suffering from overcapacity. But the Chinese government is strongly committed to having a large solar panel industry, and is starting to use subsidies to expand the modest domestic market for solar panels.
“Beijing is very committed; it will not let them down,” Mr. Haugwitz said.
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Chinese retaliation against European wines could be more politically feasible in Beijing. Tales of lavish spending on expensive wines by the wealthy and by government officials periodically surface on the Chinese Internet, and feed public anxiety about the wide gap between rich and poor.
China exports over 90 percent of its solar panels. It has done so to tap into billions of dollars in subsidies from government agencies and other electricity users in the United States and Europe for homes and businesses to install solar panels. W.T.O. rules have discouraged Western countries from banning the use of their subsidies for the purchase of Chinese solar panels.
The exception has been government procurement of solar panels, for which the United States has some “buy American” provisions. China has not joined the W.T.O. side agreement on government procurement, as many Chinese provincial governments have been leery of being required to accept foreign bids for local and provincial government contracts. So Western governments also have the option not to entertain bids from Chinese companies, though this option has seldom been exercised."
