Sunday, January 25, 2015

Syriza victory: Turning point for EU?

This was an extraordinary victory for the radical left in Greece - probably beyond its own expectations. Alexis Tsipras will now try to lead an anti-austerity revolution, backed by a strong democratic mandate. He said in his victory speech that he is willing to negotiate with Greece's European partners. The question is: how much are they prepared to compromise with him?
Syriza wants to reverse cuts in public services and increase salaries and pensions again. It wants to write off a large chunk of Greece's huge public debt, most of which it now owes to other governments in the eurozone.
(...)
Link to BBC

ECB executive warns over 'weakened' European Union

"A top official at the European Central Bank (ECB) has warned that unemployment and low growth are undermining the foundations of the European Union. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Benoit Coeure, a member of the executive board of the ECB, said the bank could not create lasting growth as that was down to governments. He urged governments to speed up economic reform.,
On Thursday the ECB launched a €1.1 trillion economic stimulus plan. Mr Coeure said: "We've done our part on Thursday. Others have to do their part." He said there was "nothing" the ECB could do to lift the growth rate of Europe in a "lasting way". "We can make it cheaper to invest, but people have to want to invest and that is the role of finance ministers, that is the role of government," Mr Coeure said.
'Entrenched unemployment'
Mr Coeure said the ECB would be making that point at the Eurogroup meeting on Monday when the ECB holds talks with finance ministers from the eurozone. "With low growth, entrenched unemployment - people being dragged out of the labour market - we are seeing the whole political foundation of the European project being weakened. This cannot last for too long," he said. "Being patient is just a risk we don't want to take."
Record low interest rates have failed to boost the 19-country euro area. So, the ECB plans to buy €60bn bonds each month from banks until the end of September 2016, or even longer, in what is called quantitative easing (QE). QE in theory increases the supply of money, something that keeps interest rates low and encourages borrowing and therefore spending."
BBC

Thursday, January 22, 2015

ECB unveils massive QE boost for eurozone

The European Central Bank (ECB) will inject at least €1.1 trillion (£834bn) into the ailing eurozone economy.
The ECB will buy €60bn bonds each month from banks until the end of September 2016, or even longer, in what is called quantitative easing (QE).
QE in theory increases the supply of money, something that keeps interest rates low and encourages borrowing and therefore spending.
The news sent the euro to an 11-year low against the against the US dollar.
Record low eurozone rates have failed to boost the 19-country euro area. The ECB also said it would keep eurozone interest rates at 0.05%, a record low. Rates have been at that level since September 2014.  ECB president Mario Draghi said the programme would begin in March.
Earlier this month, figures showed the eurozone was suffering deflation, creating the danger that growth would stall as businesses and consumers shut their wallets, as they waited for prices to fall.
Mr Draghi said the programme would be conducted "until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation", which the ECB has pledged to maintain at close to 2%.
Shares rose in response to the news and bond yields, which are linked to the amount governments pay to borrow, fell, particularly those of the weakest countries including Italy, Spain and Portugal.
(...)"
Link to BBC

Monday, January 5, 2015

Politics of Europe on the top of security risks

"Just two years ago, Ian Bremmer, the head of Eurasia Group, said political risk in the developed world was "overstated." Today, things are a bit different. "Geopolitics is back," Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan write in Eurasia Group's annual list of the top risks. "As 2015 begins, political conflict among the world's great powers is in play more than at any time since the end of the Cold War."
Russia, China, the Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL), and the emerging markets are major risks in the coming year, but the biggest one is Europe because of increased political instability, according to Bremmer and Kupchan. We've put together Bremmer and Kupchan's top 10 risks for 2015, along with key explanations and — bonus — a list of red herrings.
1. The politics of Europe
"Anxiety is again on the rise over Europe's economics, but there is no sense of crisis to force political leaders to work together," Bremmer writes. Additionally, anti-EU political parties are becoming more popular, while some governments are increasingly growing to resent Germany's dominant influence. On top of all that, "Russia and ISIS will add to Europe's security worries," Bremmer writes."
2. Russia
3. The effect of China slowdown
4. The weaponization of finance
5. ISIS, beyond Iraq and Syria (Yemen, Jordan, Saudi Arabia)
6. Weak incumbents (Brazil, Turkey, Colombia, South Africa, Nigeria)
7. The rise of strategic sectors
8. Saudi Arabia versus Iran
9. Taiwan and China
10. Turkey
Link to BusinessInsider