Thursday, January 1, 2009

Euro in Slovakia

Ten years after the original 11 countries in western Europe set up a common currency, the monetary union is due to enlarge to Slovakia, as its 16th member state and the first in central Europe to switch to the euro.
"I'm sure this event will trigger a lot of positive expectations and positive results for the Slovak economy and citizens," EU economy and monetary affairs Joaquin Almunia told journalists ahead of 1 January.
"The Slovak economy was able to fulfil al the conditions required to join the euro less than five years after the country entered the EU and this had required a political will and a very dynamic economy. Now it's the time to reap the benefits of sharing the same currency," with 325 million Europeans in the 15-strong eurozone.
Who comes next?
As a significantly poorer country having transformed itself from a centrally-planned economy to a market economy, Slovakia's accession to the EU's monetary union has been watched closely as a test case for other states hoping to join. "Slovakia will be the key example in the future when decisions on future entrants are made because if the country functions smoothly, it will be a good argument for the countries in the same region," Zsolt Darvas, from the Brussels-based Bruegel think-tank told EUobserver.
He pointed out that Poland and Hungary are the most likely to join after their Visegrad neighbour, as the governments of both countries have indicated they would like to enter the so-called European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II), a fixed exchange rate waiting room for the euro.
As the candidates to join the European currency need to remain in the system for a minimum of two years, Mr Darvas argues that both Poland and Hungary could join the euro in three years from now. While Poland currently meets all necessary euro entry criteria, albeit with slightly high inflation, Hungary would have a problem with a public debt, currently at the level of 66 percent of GDP, above the eurozone's threshold of 60 percent.
The Czech Republic would also make it to the euro club without major problems according to several analysts. But just as in the UK, where some insiders say the government is considering such a possibility, the euro remains a matter of political division.
The Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia have all joined ERMII but are currently facing problems due to the global financial crisis, so their original plans to adopt the euro in 2009 or 2010 have been postponed until an unknown date.
On the other hand, Denmark might be the next western European country to shift to the common currency area - also as an indirect consequence of the credit crunch and economic recession.
Euobserver

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