Andrej Babis sworn in as Czech PM

"Andrej Babis has been appointed prime minister of the Czech Republic after his ANO party came first in an election in October. President Milos Zeman appointed the 63-year-old in a televised ceremony on Wednesday. Babis set up ANO in 2011 as a protest movement when mainstream parties were embroiled in corruption scandals. The billionaire businessman must now focus on securing parliamentary backing for a minority administration. 

What has he promised to do in government?

Babis has pledged to keep the budget in shape but also boost infrastructure investments and public sector wages.He has also promised to play a more active role in the EU, especially in securing the EU's external border to stop illegal immigration.

The Czechs are facing a possible EU suit over refusing to accept migrants under an EU quota system.

Babis says this will be his first EU task. "I will first have to negotiate and convince the European Commission not to sue us and to find a different solution," he has told reporters."Quotas are not a solution, and the solution is outside Europe, and we have to win over other member states for this." 

When will he take power?

On December the 13th. This allows him to take part in an EU leaders' summit in Brussels the following day. 

Was it a convincing win?

Yes. Running on pledges to fight migration and make the state more efficient, ANO won 29.6% of the vote.That is nearly three times the support won by the second-placed centre-right Civic Democrats.

However, despite the strong showing, it is unclear whether Babis will be able to win a confidence vote for his government by mid-January, as required by the constitution.The ANO holds 78 seats in the 200-seat lower house but has so far failed to win the backing of any of the other eight parties.

Should he lose such a vote, Babis would stay in power until a new arrangement is found. He also faces the threat of prosecution in connection with his business interests. 

Is there a deal in place already?

Babis says not. The far-right, anti-EU and anti-NATO SPD party and the Communists have lent ANO support in several initial votes in return for committee posts for their members.

This has raised the prospect that an agreement might already be in place to back the ANO. But Babis said on Wednesday he had no deal in place. He says he plans to talk to all parties to either back the cabinet or abstain from the vote to help it win. "In the week of December the 18th we will present the programme manifesto and negotiate on whether someone will go into government with us or give us tolerance," he said. 

What the critics say

Rival parties have criticsed Babis for alleged conflicts of interest. The second-richest person in the country, he is worth $4 billion dollars according to Forbes. He owns a farming, chemicals, food and media group which has contracts with the state and receives European subsidies.

The main sticking point is a police request that parliament strip Babis of his immunity so he can be prosecuted for suspected fraud in tapping EU subsidies. He has denied any wrongdoing. If police drop the case or parliament refused to lift immunity, Babis may win some votes from other factions.Analysts say a second attempt to form a cabinet, with or without Babis, may have a greater chance of success because many parties suffered losses in the October vote.They are said to be keen to avoid an early election, which a prolonged crisis could eventually lead to."

Euronews

Spain Dismisses Catalonia Government After Region Declares Independence

"Spain’s leader fired the government of the rebellious Catalonia region Friday, dissolved the regional parliament and ordered new elections after Catalan lawmakers illegally declared an independent nation.

The showdown escalated the biggest political crisis in decades to hit Spain, which is just emerging from a prolonged economic malaise. Catalonia is a critical part of the economy in Spain, the fifth largest in Europe. (...)

As of Friday night it was unclear whether separatist leaders — who hours earlier exulted at the independence declaration — would resist. The mood in the city of Barcelona was a mix of intense joy and subdued trepidation.

“We believe it is urgent to listen to Catalan citizens, to all of them, so that they can decide their future and nobody can act outside the law on their behalf,” Mr. Rajoy said.

The steps announced by Mr. Rajoy mean Spain will take direct control over one of the country’s autonomous regions for the first time since Spain embraced democracy under the 1978 Constitution.

At the end of what he called “a sad day” for Spaniards, Mr. Rajoy assured them that he had the means to end a secessionist threat that, he said, was based on “lies, frauds and impositions.”

He removed the Catalan leader, Carles Puigdemont, and his cabinet, as well as the director general of the autonomous police force. He also ordered Catalonia’s representative offices overseas to close.

In ordering the Catalan Parliament to dissolve, Mr. Rajoy said new regional elections would be held Dec. 21.

Pending the elections and formation of a new regional government, Mr. Rajoy said, Catalonia’s administration would be run from Madrid.

Fueled by a distinct language and culture as well as economic grievances, aspirations for a separate state have percolated for generations in Catalonia before boiling over this month.

The events on Friday, coming in the chaotic aftermath of an Oct. 1 independence referendum in Catalonia, were greeted variously with anger, concern and elation on both sides, with the prospect of even more volatile confrontations in days ahead as the Spanish government moves to put the steps in place.

Spain’s attorney general may now seek to detain Catalan leaders on grounds of rebellion.(...)

During the debate in the regional parliament that preceded their vote for independence, Catalan lawmakers traded accusations and in turn described the occasion as “historic” and “happy,” or else “tragic” and a violation of Spain’s Constitution — perhaps the only thing on which both sides agreed.

Within an hour, the Spanish Senate in Madrid voted 214 to 47 to invoke Article 155 of Spain’s Constitution, granting Mr. Rajoy extraordinary powers to seize direct administrative control over the region and remove secessionist politicians, including Mr. Puigdemont, the Catalan leader.

In a speech on Friday before the vote, Mr. Rajoy had said he had “no alternative” because Mr. Puigdemont and his separatist government had pursued an illegal and unilateral path that was “contrary to the normal behavior in any democratic country like ours.”

Undeterred by Mr. Rajoy’s threat, and after a bitter debate, separatists in the Catalan Parliament passed a resolution to create “a Catalan republic as an independent state.”

Most of the opponents to independence walked out of the chamber in protest before the vote, which the remaining lawmakers held via secret ballot, aware that declaring independence from Spain could risk arrest. The final tally was 70 in favor, 10 against, and two blank votes.

Since the referendum, Mr. Puigdemont had been squeezed in a tightening vise of his own creation, and seemed at times to contradict his own declarations as he squirmed for a way out.

Mr. Puigdemont, a former small city mayor, was trapped between the demands from Catalan hard-liners to declare independence on one side, and, on the other side, the stiffening response from a Rajoy government determined to preserve the nation’s Constitution and territorial integrity.

Despite pleas for mediation, he and his region’s independence bid were shunned and condemned, not only by Madrid but also by European Union officials wary of encouraging similarly minded secessionist movements around the Continent.

European leaders made clear on Friday that they would not be recognizing Catalan independence and would support Mr. Rajoy, as leader of one of the bloc’s most important member states. Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, wrote in a Twitter post that “nothing changes” and “Spain remains our only interlocutor.”

Searching for a compromise, Mr. Puigdemont came close on Thursday to calling early regional elections in hopes of forestalling the drastic measures approved by the Spanish Senate on Friday and preserving Catalonia’s autonomy.

But Madrid would offer no guarantee that it would not clamp down on the region, Mr. Puigdemont said, as he immediately faced a revolt in his own ranks from secessionist hard-liners who called him a traitor.

After hours of wavering on Thursday, he relented and threw the decision on independence to Catalan lawmakers, who took the fateful plunge on Friday.

(...)"

Link

Austrian snap elections

"Das Ergebnis der Nationalratswahl ist komplett, alle Wahlkarten sind ausgezählt. Mit den insgesamt 795.763 abgegebenen Wahlkarten und Briefwahlstimmen (790.606 davon waren gültig) stieg die Beteiligung auf genau 80 Prozent. Das ist gegenüber 2013 ein Plus von 5,09 Prozentpunkten - und bedeutet den größten Zuwachs in der Zweiten Republik. An den Stimmenanteilen änderten die rund 37.000 am Donnerstag ausgezählten Wahlkarten nicht viel, wie aus den spätabends vom Innenministerium veröffentlichen Zahlen hervorgeht.

Die Grünen blieben - auch inklusive Briefwahlstimmen - deutlich unter der Vier-Prozent-Hürde für den Verbleib im Nationalrat. Sie landeten bei 3,80 Prozent. Das ist ein Verlust von 8,62 Prozentpunkten gegenüber 2013 - und aller 24 Mandate, die sie damals geholt hatten.

Die ÖVP ist Erste mit 31,47 Prozent (plus 7,48) und 62 Mandaten. Die SPÖ wurde durch die Briefwahlauszählung am Montag Zweite - und liegt jetzt mit 26,86 Prozent (plus 0,04) und 52 Mandaten deutlich vor der FPÖ. Deren Stimmenanteil fiel mit den Donnerstagswahlkarten unter 26 Prozent, auf 25,97 Prozent (plus 5,46), sie stellt künftig 51 Abgeordnete. Die NEOS sind mit zehn Mandaten (5,30 Prozent), die Liste Pilz ist mit acht Mandaten (4,41 Prozent) im nächsten Nationalrat vertreten.

(...)

Am Donnerstag hatten die neun Landeswahlbehörden dann noch 37.339 Stimmen (37.109 davon gültige) auszuzählen, die am Sonntag per Wahlkarte oder Briefwahl in "fremden" Wahlkreisen abgegeben wurden. Damit stieg die Wahlbeteiligung, die am Sonntag erst mit 67,56 Prozent und am Montag mit 79,41 ausgewiesen wurde, noch auf genau 80 Prozent.

(...)"

Link

European Union to get a single public prosecutor

A Luxembourg-based chief prosecutor, tasked with investigating EU budget-related fraud, will start work next year after getting final approval from the European Parliament on Thursday (5 October). 

The prosecutor will have the power to coordinate police investigations, freeze and seize assets, and arrest suspects across borders.

Until now, only national authorities could investigate and prosecute crimes such as intentional misuse of EU structural funds or cross-border VAT fraud, but it was much more difficult because these authorities’ jurisdiction ends at national borders.

Member states gave their assent to the creation of the office in the 2009 Lisbon Treaty. However, the legislation creating the agency, first put forward in 2013, has been delayed because of opposition from some member states.

Due to unanimity requirements, the European Council opted for ‘enhanced cooperation’, with only 20 of the EU’s 28 member states participating. Non-participating countries include the UK, Ireland, Denmark, Sweden, Hungary, Malta and the Netherlands. They are free to join at any point in the future.

(...)

The Luxembourg office will have a chief prosecutor and prosecutors from all participating countries, who will be heading the day-to-day criminal investigations carried out by delegated prosecutors in all participating member states.

Link

EU sugar quota system comes to an end

The very last agricultural quota system in place, managing sugar production in the European Union, will be scrapped on 30 September 2017, after nearly 50 years.

The decision to end the sugar quotas now was agreed between the European Parliament and Member States in the 2013 reform of the Common Agricultural policy (CAP) after a major reform and restructuring process initiated in 2006.
(...)
Link

Cinq axes clés pour regonfler une UE essoufflée

Emmanuel Macron, dans un discours ambitieux et d’une rare densité, qui rompt avec les cinq ans de silence obstiné observé sur le sujet par son prédécesseur François Hollande, a plaidé pour une «refondation» de l’Union européenne d’ici à 2024 car «nous ne pouvons pas nous permettre de garder les mêmes politiques, les mêmes habitudes, les mêmes procédures, les mêmes budgets». Il n’a pas hésité à se placer dans les pas des «pères fondateurs» : «Je pense à cet instant à Robert Schuman, le 9 mai 1950, osant proposer de construire l’Europe. Je pense à ces mots saisissants : "L’Europe n’a pas été faite, nous avons eu la guerre."» Décryptage des cinq points clefs de son discours.
Une Europe différenciée
Pour Macron, unité ne rime pas avec paralysie. S’il n’exclut pas qu’à terme tous les pays de l’Union participent à toutes les politiques européennes, y compris à l’euro, il refuse que les plus réticents bloquent ceux qui veulent aller de l’avant, d’autant que «l’Europe est déjà à plusieurs vitesses, n’ayons pas peur de le dire. Allons vers ces différenciations» qui impliquent la mise en place d’une «avant-garde». Pour rassurer les pays d’Europe de l’Est, qui sont visés, le chef de l’Etat affirme qu’il ne veut pas bâtir de nouveaux murs mais «assurer l’unité sans chercher l’uniformité» et sortir de la recherche actuelle du «plus petit dénominateur commun». Assumer que l’Europe n’ira pas du même pas avant longtemps ne veut pas dire que ceux qui n’appartiendront pas au cœur nucléaire de l’Union pourront faire ce qu’ils veulent. Outre les règles du marché unique, qui continueront à se décider à vingt-sept et à s’appliquer aux vingt-sept, «sur les valeurs de la démocratie et de l’Etat de droit, […] il ne peut y avoir d’Europe à deux vitesses». La Pologne et la Hongrie sont prévenues.
Une zone euro renforcée
Pour Macron, «le cœur d’une Europe intégrée», c’est l’euro. En préalable, il écarte toute mutualisation «des dettes du passé», un épouvantail outre-Rhin, et il se garde bien d’évoquer de futurs «eurobonds» ou emprunts européens, meilleurs moyens de bloquer toute discussion. Il estime cependant nécessaire un budget de la zone euro non pas pour voler au secours des déficits publics, mais pour investir et disposer de «moyens face aux chocs économiques» : «Un Etat ne peut, seul, faire face à une crise lorsqu’il ne décide pas de sa politique monétaire.» Ce budget serait abondé par les taxes européennes sur les géants du numérique qu’il veut mettre en place, la taxe carbone, voire une partie de l’impôt sur les sociétés lorsque les taux auront été harmonisés. Toujours afin de rassurer l’Allemagne, il réaffirme son attachement au pacte de stabilité et à la coordination des politiques économiques dont le pilotage serait assuré par un ministre des Finances européen (fusion du poste de commissaire européen aux Affaires économiques et de celui de président de l’Eurogroupe, l’enceinte réunissant les ministres des Finances de la zone euro). Enfin, il veut qu’un contrôle parlementaire sur la zone euro soit institué, sans dire s’il sera assuré par l’actuel Parlement européen ou par un Parlement ad hoc.
Une Union protectrice Le chef de l’Etat a particulièrement insisté sur la transition énergétique rendue nécessaire par l’accord de Paris sur le climat. Il veut notamment instituer un prix plancher de la tonne de carbone, et, afin d’assurer une juste concurrence, instituer une taxe aux frontières européennes sur les produits provenant de pays ne respectant pas les standards européens. Il propose aussi de créer une véritable communauté européenne de la voiture électrique afin «de traverser l’Europe sans l’abîmer». Après les scandales alimentaires qui ont ébranlé l’Union, comme celui des œufs contaminés, Macron souhaite accélérer la transition vers une agriculture «écologique et responsable», notamment en assurant à tous les agriculteurs des revenus décents, ce qui passe par une réforme en profondeur de la politique agricole commune, «un tabou français», celle-ci réservant 80 % de ses aides à 20 % des agriculteurs, généralement les plus intensifs. Il veut aussi la création d’une «force européenne d’enquête et de contrôle» pour lutter contre les fraudes alimentaires, un domaine jusque-là souverain, et réformer en profondeur les évaluations scientifiques européennes. Le chef de l’Etat milite pour la mise en place d’une Europe fiscale afin de mettre fin à la concurrence de tous contre tous, en adoptant d’ici à 2020 une fourchette de taux d’impôts sur les sociétés. Si un Etat ne la respecte pas, il serait privé d’une partie des aides régionales (fonds de cohésion). De même, un salaire minimum européen, variable selon les pays, serait créé. Enfin, Macron demande une politique commerciale plus transparente, qui tienne compte des exigences sociales et environnementales ainsi que la création d’un «procureur commercial européen» chargé de vérifier le respect des règles par les pays tiers et doté d’un pouvoir de sanction.
Une UE de la sécurité Face à «l’inéluctable» retrait américain, l’Union n’a d’autre choix que d’assumer sa propre défense «en complément de l’Otan», affirme Macron. Il propose en préalable de créer «une culture stratégique commune» en accueillant au sein de l’armée française des militaires européens afin de participer «à nos travaux d’anticipation, de renseignement, de planification et de soutien aux opérations», Une initiative qu’il aimerait voir reprise par toutes les armées de l’Union. Ensuite, dès les années 2020, «l’Europe devra être dotée d’une force commune d’intervention», une proposition qui remonte à 1999 mais n’a jamais vu le jour, «d’un budget de défense commun et d’une doctrine commune pour agir». Pour renforcer la coordination des services de renseignements européens dans la lutte contre le terrorisme, le chef de l’Etat souhaite la création d’une «académie européenne du renseignement» et que le parquet européen en cours de création ait compétence dans les domaines de la criminalité organisée et du terrorisme, alors que pour l’instant, elle est limitée à la lutte contre les fraudes au budget communautaire. Enfin, Macron veut rompre avec la politique du chacun pour soi en matière d’immigration et d’asile, les pays de la «ligne de front» étant laissés à eux-mêmes. Il propose la création d’un office européen de l’asile, destiné à harmoniser les procédures, une proposition de la Commission qui remonte au début du siècle, l’interconnexion des fichiers, le renforcement de la «police européenne des frontières» actuellement dotée d’effectifs symboliques, une gestion commune des reconduites à la frontière et le financement européen de l’intégration des réfugiés. Cette politique d’immigration passera aussi par un «partenariat avec l’Afrique», qui implique une augmentation de l’aide au développement, qui pourrait à terme être financée par une taxe sur les transactions financières européennes, un serpent de mer, qui prendrait comme modèle la taxe française ou britannique.
 La méthode
Macron ne veut pas se lancer d’emblée dans une réforme des traités européens. Il évoque seulement deux réformes : une réduction de la taille de la Commission de vingt-huit à quinze membres (comme cela était prévu à l’origine par le traité de Lisbonne) et la création de listes transnationales pour les élections européennes afin de créer un espace public européen. Dans un premier temps, seuls les 73 postes libérés par les Britanniques seraient concernés, mais il souhaite que la moitié du Parlement soit élu à terme dans le cadre d’une circonscription européenne. En clair, les partis européens désigneraient ces candidats et non plus les partis nationaux. Pour le reste, il se montre ouvert : soit des coopérations renforcées, soit un accord ad hoc, soit une nouvelle législation communautaire. Mais il estime que tous les pays devraient lancer des «conventions démocratiques» afin que les citoyens soient consultés sur l’Europe qu’ils souhaitent : elles se réuniraient pendant six mois en 2018 pour débattre et permettre aux partis de s’emparer de leurs conclusions.
Liberation

Germany: elections 2017

Link

Macron marches on as his party wins large majority in French parliament

The French president Emmanuel Macron’s new centrist movement has won a large majority in the French parliament, taking 351 out of 577 seats.

The win will hand the new president a relatively free rein to implement his plans to change French labour law, and overhaul unemployment benefits and pensions.

But the results were tempered by a record low turnout of around 43%. Abstention was particularly high in low-income areas, reopening the debate about France’s social divide.

The traditional right and left parties that had dominated parliament and government for decades saw their presence in the assembly shrink significantly, confirming the redrawing of the French political landscape that began when the Socialists and the rightwing Républicains were knocked out in the first round of spring’s presidential election.

The French right, which only a year ago had believed the presidential and parliamentary elections impossible to lose, was on track for its worst parliamentary score in France’s postwar Fifth Republic. Les Républicains and its allies were forecast to see their number of seats shrink to around 125 – low, but higher than was forecast after the poor first-round showing last week.

The Socialist party was the biggest loser, expecting to shed more than 200 seats and hold only around 34 seats – again, better than forecast, but still a drubbing. The party’s leader, Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, immediately stood down.

(...)

Politico

Turkey's Erdogan declares referendum victory

President Tayyip Erdogan declared victory in a referendum on Sunday to grant him sweeping powers in the biggest overhaul of modern Turkish politics, but opponents said the vote was marred by irregularities and they would challenge its result.(...)

Erdogan said 25 million people had supported the proposal, which will replace Turkey's parliamentary system with an all-powerful presidency and abolish the office of prime minister, giving the "Yes" camp 51.5 percent of the vote. (...)

Under the changes, most of which will only come into effect after the next elections due in 2019, the president will appoint the cabinet and an undefined number of vice-presidents, and be able to select and remove senior civil servants without parliamentary approval.
There has been some speculation that Erdogan could call new elections so that his new powers could take effect right away. However, Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek told Reuters there was no such plan, and the elections would still be held in 2019. (...)
The head of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), Kemal Kilicdaroglu, said the legitimacy of the referendum was open to question. His party said it would demand a recount of up to 60 percent of the votes.(...)
Reuters

Dutch PM Rutte beats off far right but loses seats

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s center-right party beat off a challenge from far-right firebrand Geert Wilders on Wednesday to come first in a parliamentary election despite losing seats, a projection based on partial results showed.

Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) was projected to win 32 seats, nine fewer than at the last election in 2012. Wilders’ anti-Islam Party for Freedom (PVV) was in a race for second place with two other parties. He was predicted to end up with 19 seats, up four on last time.

The other contenders for second place, the Christian Democrats and the liberal D66 party, both made gains. They were projected to end up with 20 and 18 seats respectively, according to a projection from Dutch news agency ANP, with around 28 percent of votes counted.

The Labor Party (PvdA), Rutte’s junior coalition partner, faced the biggest electoral loss in its history. It was forecast to win just 10 seats — down from 38 last time. The GreenLeft party posted a spectacular advance, going from four seats to 14 in the 150-member lower house of parliament.(...)

Politico

Balkans must join the EU eventually

More Balkan states can still join the European Union if they stick to a path of economic and democratic reform, Europe's leaders said on Thursday at a summit meant to cement the bloc's long-term commitment to stabilize a region mired in political crisis.
EU leaders placed the Balkans high on the agenda of their summit in Brussels to show that despite ethnic tensions and the scars from wars fought in the 1990s, the region is a priority for the European Union, particularly as Russia also seeks to increase its influence there.
"The Western Balkan countries have an unequivocal European perspective," said Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Commission which is leading membership negotiations with Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia and Serbia. "We are not stepping away, but stepping in," he said.
Two years ago, Juncker said no new countries would join the EU during his mandate at the Commission, which runs until 2019. Officials said that was a technicality because the Balkans were not ready to join. But some in the region say the message damaged the EU's credibility.
Britain will hold a special summit on the Western Balkans in 2018, Prime Minister Theresa May said, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel also stressed the importance of the region.
Thursday's meeting did not prescribe new EU policies for the Balkans, but diplomats said European leaders would try to visit more often to encourage reform. "For the countries in the Balkans, that matters," said a senior EU official. "There's a sense that their European path has slipped away. But their only path is toward the EU."
Russia, which is trying to exploit its historic links in the region to challenge EU and U.S. involvement, opposes the accession of Balkan states into the EU. It refuses to recognize the independence of Kosovo and opposes Montenegro's membership of the U.S.-led NATO alliance.
The Balkan countries are at various stages of reforms aimed at paving the way for EU membership, with Serbia seen as a linchpin whose development could pull up others.
But despite some progress over the past five years, reforms across the region to the judiciary and the business climate have stalled, allowing organized crime to flourish and encouraging more migrants to head north to the EU. Britain's May warned of "the potential for increased instability and the risks ... to our collective security."
Macedonia is mired in a political crisis, while Serbia does not recognize the independence of Kosovo, its former province, and accuses it of seeking a war with Belgrade.
In Montenegro, both pro-Western and opposition parties are boycotting the parliament following a recent vote in which they say people were intimidated to back the government.
Reuters

EU leaders defy Warsaw to reappoint Donald Tusk

EU leaders reappointed European Council President Donald Tusk for a second two-and-a-half-year term on Thursday, barreling over the ferocious opposition of Tusk’s native Poland.

Politico

Commission outlines 5 scenarios for future of EU

The European Commission has outlined five scenarios for the future of the European Union in a white paper obtained by POLITICO ahead of its publication on Wednesday.

The scenarios are entitled “carrying on,” “nothing but the single market,” “those who want more do more,” “doing less more efficiently,” and “doing much more together.”

The paper is an attempt by the Commission, led by President Jean-Claude Juncker, to shape a major debate about the EU’s future following Britain’s shock decision to leave. The document is also intended to influence a declaration by the 27 countries remaining in the EU at the bloc’s 60th anniversary summit on March 25 in Rome.

The paper starts with a somber tone, acknowledging the existential struggle the EU is facing due to crises over Brexit, migration and the eurozone. “Europe’s challenges show no sign of abating,” the paper says. It also notes the difficult balancing act facing the EU, as “many Europeans consider the Union as either too distant or too interfering.”

While generally neutral in its language, the Commission at times makes its preferred option clear. For example, on eurozone governance, the Commission aligns itself with the most federal option by saying it will issue a paper based on the 2015 Five Presidents’ Report, which called for a eurozone finance minister and stricter controls over the budgets of the 19 countries that use the single currency.

Here are more details of the five scenarios:

Scenario 1: Carrying on

This scenario assumes that staying the course will involve small, smooth changes to the functioning of the EU. The Commission says “carrying on” will deliver “incremental progress.” This option is based on national governments agreeing to deepen the EU’s single market, pool some military capabilities and “speaking with one voice on foreign affairs,” while leaving key responsibilities like border control mostly in the hands of national governments.

There are some dark clouds hanging over this option in phrases such as “Europeans are mostly able to travel across borders without stopping for checks,” indicating trouble ahead for the visa-free Schengen Zone if changes are not agreed to its management. The Commission warns: “Continuous improvement to border management is needed to keep up with new challenges. If this is not done, some countries may wish to maintain targeted internal controls.”

 Scenario 2: Nothing but the single market

Here the Commission focuses on the achievement with the broadest base of support: its single market. The Commission is not enthusiastic about this option, noting that “decision-making may be simpler to understand but the capacity to act collectively is limited” and “this may widen the gap between expectations and delivery at all levels.”

With the single market as its main mission, the Commission believes, the EU would face a heightened risk to the euro, because it would have failed to finish establishing the eurozone’s economic governance, leaving it vulnerable to new financial crises.

Companies would likely face more border checks, and EU members would revert to pursuing bilateral foreign policy. Trade deals and defense cooperation would also be more difficult. 

On a day-to-day level, the Commission believes connected cars would not take off in Europe under this scenario “due to the absence of EU-wide rules and technical standards.”

Scenario 3: Those who want more do more

This is effectively a multi-speed EU based on “coalitions of the willing” in specific policy areas such as defense, internal security, taxation or social matters. Under this scenario the Commission assumes that all 27 members would still make general progress on a deeper single market.

The Commission believes this model would lead to differences in citizens’ rights and is not optimistic that eurozone governance could be completed. However, it envisages that it would allow national militaries that have close relations with one another to move quickly into new fields like drone surveillance, or for aligned economies to created a unified business law code.

Scenario 4: Doing less more efficiently

By “doing less,” the Commission apparently means is “better tackle certain priorities together.” In other words, not “less” but doing more in “a reduced number of areas.”

The major headline achievements would be a fully resourced European Border and Coast Guard, a single voice on foreign policy and the establishment of a European Defense Union.

The Commission sees other priority areas for deeper cooperation as innovation, trade and security. Research could be focused on digitization and decarbonization of the economy.

The Commission points out one problem with this scenario — it relies on EU countries agreeing among themselves on the areas on which they want to cooperate more efficiently.             

Scenario 5: Doing much more together

Here the EU27 go “further than ever before in all domains” — code for a federal EU.

The EU would get more of its “own resources” (the ability to raise revenue through tax), the eurozone would be completed along the lines of the Five Presidents’ Report issued in 2015. The Commission prefers this option for eurozone governance and said it will issue a reflection paper to that effect in the coming months.

Under this scenario the EU would also assume powers to speak for all of Europe on trade and foreign policy, and would assume global leadership for fighting climate change and on humanitarian issues.

There would be “far greater and quicker decision-making” in Brussels, but the Commission acknowledges “there is the risk of alienating parts of society which feel that the EU lacks legitimacy.”

Politico

EU voices 'full support' for Italy-Libya accord

EU leaders on Friday said the EU "welcomes with favour and is ready to support the development of the accord signed between Italy and Libya on February 2" by Italian authorities and Libyan Premier Fayez al-Serraj, according to a joint statement issued by the leaders at the Valletta summit on immigration.

Premier Paolo Gentiloni said after the summit that the European Council had "very much appreciated" Italy's migrant deal with Libya, calling it "the opening of a window of opportunity on which Italy will work and invest, but it is very important that the EU should also work and invest, and it will do that with additional resources which Juncker and Mogherini explicitly talked about".
"We must all be aware that it is a first step," he warned, however. "The internationally recognised Libyan government does not have the same control as Erdogan, to make a comparison. You can't expect the situation to suddenly change".

(...)

Ansa

EU founders speak of possible 'multispeed' future after Brexit

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and leaders of other founding states of the European Union spoke on Friday of some countries moving ahead faster than others with further integration.
After a summit in Malta at which all national leaders discussed plans for a formal declaration in March on the future of the bloc following Britain's departure, Merkel and others offered endorsements of a so-called "multispeed Europe", which some governments fear could damage EU unity in the wake of Brexit.
Though they disagree on details, Berlin, Paris and many of the 17 other states which use the euro currency are keen to bind the euro zone closer together after years of crisis in which investors have doubted the currency's survival. But some countries around the periphery of the bloc fear creating a system in which a hard core of states pushes the EU into policies they do not want.

The last few years, Merkel told reporters, showed "that there will be an EU with different speeds, that not everyone will take part in the same levels of integration".
One area in which governments are divided over the degree of integration is defence. With the departure of long-time sceptic Britain, France and Germany are keen to develop closer EU ties.
The 27 leaders are due to meet without British Prime Minister Theresa May on March 25 in the Italian capital to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the founding Treaty of Rome.
French President Francois Hollande said he thought that the Rome statement could mention "several speeds" as a possible way forward, though he stressed: "European unity is essential."
In a reminder of divisions in the bloc, Hollande, who will step down in May, took a dig at East European states which Paris complains fail to honour commitments -- such as taking in asylum-seekers -- while accepting big subsidies from Brussels:
"Europe isn't a cash-box, not a self-service restaurant, a Europe where you come and take what you need, where you take your structural funds or get access to the internal market and then show no solidarity at all in return," he told reporters. "Europe was built to be stronger together and it's that rule, that principle, which should be driven home in March."

In a paper offering proposals for the Rome declaration, the three Benelux neighbours said "different paths of integration and enhanced cooperation could provide for effective responses to challenges that affect member states in different ways".
Reuters

Donald Trump BATTERS Brussels with order to STOP EU Army plans or lose US Nato support

PRESIDENT TRUMP will demand Brussels abandons plans for an EU Army if it wants the US is to continue its support for Nato.

Senior British officers serving at the Pentagon have been briefed that one of the new administration’s top priorities will be to “sweep away” plans championed by Germany and France.

”We have been told quite clearly that, in an environment in which the political temperature in Eastern Europe is high and fiscal pressure on budgets is increasing, there can only be one joint force and that is Nato,” he said.

Senior US officers directing future strategy want to see more delivery from European nations. There is grave concern about the intent and growing talk of an EU Army, which appears to draw resources away from the Alliance.

Burden sharing by Europe is expected feature highly during Theresa May’s visit with Trump next month, though Britain is one of only five members meeting spending targets.

Despite comments by President Trump calling Nato “obsolete”, new US defence secretary Gen James Mattis affirmed America’s commitment to the Alliance – and reinforced concerns against Russia.

“We have a long list of times we’ve tried to engage positively with Russia. We have a relatively short list of successes in that regard,” he told Congress on Friday.
While European defence spending is the primary concern, insiders warned that Trump would also be gauging Europe’s “boots on the ground” commitments.
The US currently fields six Brigades in Europe, including the newly arrived 3rd Armour Brigade which boasts hundreds of armoured vehicles, including 87 tanks, and 3,500 troops to boost Nato’s efforts to deter Russia in Eastern Europe.
Of Europe’s Nato members, only Britain and France have put themselves forward to lead three of its remaining four battalions.
“President Trump is a numbers man.  Defence spending is one thing, but when he meets with Nato chiefs in Brussels later this year, he will do the math: the US is deploying almost six battalions in Europe. How does this stack with Europe’s commitment? The US and Germany are playing their part but what about the rest?”,  said another source close to the administration.
He said that Trump’s use of the word “obsolete” to describe Nato had been misinterpreted, adding: “He means that Nato must adapt to 21st Century challenges, including a counter–terror role.
“President Trump realises that, for just one per cent of the US defence budget, he can call upon 27 nations to stand up with it around the world.
“Europe supplied 40,00 troops to Afghanistan. That equates to 120,000 in real terms because for each soldier, two are in rotation. That's 120,000 US troops who didn't have to go to battle.”
During his campaign Trump pledged tens of thousands of new US troops, dozens of ships and hundreds of warplanes, plans would cost almost $100 billion more than the Pentagon has currently budgeted for Trump’s first term.
Rudi Giulliani, a key figure in Trump’s campaign, said the President was adopting a Reagan-like “peace through strength” strategy.
The former New York Mayor, who had dinner with Trump on Wednesday, said: “He believes that of the last 30 presidents of the last 50 -60 years, the most successful was Ronald Reagan, because he negotiated from strength and, lo and behold, won the cold war without firing a shot.”
The controversial 1000-strong Euro Corps was formed in 1993 and is spearheaded by a German- Franco brigade of troops. It provided HQ staff for operations in Afghanistan in 2004 and currently supports an EU maritime operation against pirates off Somalia. Directed by Brussels it is manned by 10 EU member states and Turkey. While in the EU, Britain used its influence to block its expansion.
Brexit was met with the immediate publication of plans to build a military new headquarters, as the EU scrambled to reinforce the project’s identity.
Separately, Germany’s defence white paper revealed its own ambitions to lead a pan-European force.
The moves have caused concern in the Trump camp.
“He is committed to NATO – but there is big concern about the EU moving towards an EU army, a military of Western Europe,” said Ted Malloch, President Trump’s new ambassador to the EU, recently.
Last night Ian Brzezinski, resident senior fellow with the Washington DC-based Atlantic Council think tank, said: “Where the EU is most effective is in leveraging its $17 trillion economic weight and in fostering economic development and democratic reform.
“When it develops military command structures and other military capacities it is institutionalizing duplications that serve no benefit.
“Nato is unsurpassed when it comes to so-called putting lead on a target and interoperability. The power of Nato-EU collaboration is found in their complimentarity, not redundancy.
He added: “With the appointment of Gen Mattis, a big supporter of Nato, as defence secretary, and the current Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Gen Curtis Scaparrotti, President Trump has a hammer and anvil with which to accelerate Nato’s transformation. “
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/757235/Donald-Trump-EU-Army-Nato-funding-European-Union-President

Theresa May: We’re leaving the single market

Britain is leaving the EU’s single market, Prime Minister Theresa May said Tuesday as she unveiled her strategy for leaving the European Union.

In hard hitting speech in London, May set out her vision of a United Kingdom outside the EU. While saying she wanted Britain to be a “best friend and neighbor to our European partners,” May said the U.K. would be leaving the EU’s single market, leaving the EU’s customs union in its current form, and ending large payments to the EU. She also backed a “flexible” transitional deal but warned that she would rather walk away from a deal than accept one that was bad for Britain. May also said members of both houses of the British parliament would get a vote on the final deal.

May ended months of speculation over whether she would pursue a hard Brexit by saying she would seek “a new and equal partnership…Not partial membership of the European Union, associate membership of the European Union, or anything that leaves us half-in, half-out.

“We do not seek to adopt a model already enjoyed by other countries. We do not seek to hold on to bits of membership as we leave,” she said. “The United Kingdom is leaving the European Union. My job is to get the right deal for Britain as we do.”

After describing the deal with the EU struck by David Cameron as a “valiant final attempt,” May said “there was not enough flexibility” for voters, which is why they backed Brexit in June.

May said remaining a member of the single market “would mean being bound by EU laws. That would mean in practice not leaving the EU.”

The British PM, who took office shortly after the June 23 vote, admitted that the U.K. was “at times seen as a awkward member” of the EU and added that the vote was “not always well understood” in other European capitals. But she said she did not want the Brexit vote to lead to a greater unraveling of the EU,” a possible dig at U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who told the Times and Bild newspapers this week that he expected more EU members to leave the bloc.

She said she wanted “a truly global Britain” to be “the best friend and neighbor to our European partners, but a country that reaches beyond the borders of Europe too.”

While May was clear about leaving the single market, she was less precise about the U.K.’s membership of the EU’s customs union. She said continued customs union membership would stop the U.K. being able to strike trade deals, but added that she wanted a customs agreement of sorts with Europe and “that could mean partial membership of the customs union.” How this would be achieved has yet to be decided, she said.

A number of European politicians, including Michel Barnier, the European Commission’s main man on Brexit, have warned that the U.K. would be on the hook for substantial payments into the EU budget even after Brexit, but May said Britain would no longer contribute “huge sums” to the EU once it leaves the bloc. She admitted that it might continue to make some payments, “in return for access to certain programs.”

May said that while Britain wants to remain a good friend and neighbor to the Continent, she was aware of some calls to punish Britain for voting to leave. A punitive deal would be “an act of calamitous self-harm for the countries of Europe, and it would not be the act of a friend,” she said, warning Europe that no deal for Britain would be better than a bad deal.

May said she wanted to guarantee the rights of EU nationals in Britain, and Britons living in Europe, as soon as possible, suggesting a deal could be struck straightaway. She said many EU countries also want an early deal, but not everyone.

Reversing her previous position, she said that MPs and members of the House of Lords would get a vote on the final deal. The government had long argued that it could invoke Article 50 without parliament’s consent, but High Court judges disagreed. A verdict from the Supreme Court, the highest in the country, is due any time and the government is expected to lose the case.

The PM also said she would “consider papers from the Scottish and Welsh governments” as part of the Brexit strategy.

May proposed a flexible Brexit transitional deal, with different aspects lasting for different amounts of time, and she warned that it was in “no one’s interests to have a cliff edge” although she stressed that she was opposed to an indefinite transition period.

She ended by saying: “The country is coming together. Now we need to put an end to the division and the language associated with it – Leaver and Remainer and all the accompanying insults – and unite to make a success of Brexit.” (...)

politico

More than half a million illegal immigrants entered the European Union last year

More than half a million illegal immigrants poured into the EU last year despite a landmark deal to end the crisis. Border agency Frontex’s first full figures for 2016 have revealed there were 503,700 detections of illegal border crossings.

The vast majority came via the Mediterranean into Italy and Greece. The ongoing wave comes despite a deal struck with Turkey in March to close down access to Greek islands, which was hailed as end to the migration crisis.

Tough new controls and returns saw a big drop of 79% in the number arriving in Greece, down to 182 500 – with Syrians, Afghans and Iraqis making up the largest share.

But at the same time, a record 181,000 crossed the central Mediterranean from Africa – a 20% rise from the previous 12 months.

The significant majority on this route were from West African countries, with Nigerians made up the largest portion, followed by nationals from Eritrea, Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, and Gambia. The 2016 annual total is less than a third of the massive 1,800,000 estimated to have entered the EU in 2015. (...)

Sun

Romania Chooses Left-Leaning Government

The Romanian Parliament approved a new left-leaning coalition government on Wednesday, ending weeks of uncertainty about who would lead a country that has been a staunch member of the European Union and NATO.

Sorin Grindeanu, 43, a former minister of communications and a compromise candidate, was named prime minister. He beat his Social Democratic Party’s first choice, Sevil Shhaideh, a member of the country’s Tatar minority who would have become the country’s first female and first Muslim prime minister.

The Social Democrats came to power in a national election on Dec. 11 on the promise of increasing government spending for health care, salaries and pensions. On Wednesday, Mr. Grindeanu said his government would raise the minimum wage and improve access to free prescription drugs. He also promised to create better-paying jobs so that Romanians would not seek work abroad. (...)

The natural pick for the job, the party’s leader, Liviu Dragnea, was barred from becoming prime minister after a 2015 conviction for electoral fraud. Though Mr. Dragnea will not hold any official role in the new cabinet, analysts expect that he will wield influence from behind the scenes.

“The real prime minister is Liviu Dragnea. This is the personal cabinet of Dragnea,” said Cristian Pirvulescu, dean of the political science department at the National School of Political Studies and Public Administration in Bucharest. (...)

nytimes.com

Year in review: 2016 in the European Union

"The European Union seems to have spent 2016 in a state of constant crisis - or "polycrisis," as European Commission president Juncker calls it. Our Brussels correspondent Bernd Riegert looks back over the past year.

Following the last EU summit meeting in December, Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel commented: "Looking back on 2016, we can say that this was a very turbulent year for us, for the European Union. Another very turbulent year, after 2015 proved extremely challenging on account of the many refugees. In particular, Britain's decision to leave the European Union is of course a decisive turning point." Everyone in Brussels agrees that, politically, this was a very bad year. European nationalists, populists and opponents of the EU, however, are celebrating.

January

The year began as the old one ended: with the refugee crisis. Thousands of people were arriving every day via the Balkan route. Austria was the first country to pull the brake, closing its borders to Slovenia and Hungary. Little by little the Balkan states also closed theirs. Refugees and other migrants started to collect in Greece.

In Brussels the European Commission promised to crack down on tax evasion by big business. The "Lux Leaks" affair showed how favorable policies in Luxembourg, Ireland, the Netherlands and many other EU countries enable companies to fiddle the system legally.

In EU member state Poland, the constitutional order came under threat. The EU Commission warned that the new conservative government there was obstructing the constitutional court. The Commission initiated proceedings, which still have not been concluded. The Polish government refuses to allow any kind of external interference in its affairs.

February

A last-ditch attempt to keep Britain in the EU. At a special summit, Prime Minister David Cameron obtained exceptional provisions for his disunited kingdom. "People said […] that a four-year restriction on benefits was completely out of the question, but that is now what is in the text," he declared. "I believe we are making real progress. [...] But the process is far from over. It will require hard work, determination and patience to see it through." Having secured "a clear path that can lead to a fresh settlement for Britain in a reformed European Union," Cameron set a June date for the Brexit referendum.

March

The EU and Turkey agreed on an effective policy to discourage refugees and migrants from attempting to travel to Europe. From March 20 onward, anyone arriving in Greece from Turkey would be sent back. Visiting Athens, EU President Donald Tusk made a dramatic appeal: "I am addressing all potential illegal economic refugees: Wherever you're from, don't come to Europe! Don't believe the smugglers! Don't put your lives and your money at risk. It won't do any good!" The EU decided to reinforce protection of its external borders. The plan worked, up to a point; there was a dramatic reduction in the number of arrivals. Chancellor Merkel herself promoted this new refugee policy after she was harshly criticized by other EU members. At home her party lost regional elections, and the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged ahead.

Terrorist attacks in Brussels. Islamists killed 32 people at the airport and in a subway station. Europe was in a state of shock. Bombs at the heart of the European capital. Investigators gradually uncovered a network of terrorists from Belgium, France and Syria. Some had entered Europe via the recently closed Balkan route. The EU subsequently decided to implement stricter entry and exit checks, including for EU citizens, and to initiate closer cooperation between secret services.

April

The Netherlands rejected the EU's Association Agreement with Ukraine. The "No" in the Netherlands is another victory for the populists, who had turned the vote into a referendum on Prime Minister Rutte's government and the EU. At the end of the year the EU will again revise its agreement with Ukraine. Rutte hopes to get the Dutch parliament to ratify it after all.

The pope visited Lesbos. Conditions in the refugee camps on the Greek island were very bad. The so-called "hot spots" for processing asylum seekers weren't working, because the asylum process in Greece was taking too long. People were not being deported to Turkey as agreed. EU member states were refusing to take refugees and asylum seekers from Greece and Italy as agreed. Lack of solidarity in the bloc.

May

In Austria the right-wing populist Freedom Party (FPÖ) lost the presidential election by a small margin. Former Green politician Alexander Van der Bellen was elected over the FPÖ's candidate, Norbert Hofer. The FPÖ contested the result - successfully. The election was repeated in December, and Van der Bellen won again, by a bigger margin this time. EU leaders evaluated this as a success in the ongoing struggle with the populists. Nonetheless, opinion polls show that the FPÖ is still the strongest party in Austria.

Another multi-billion euro aid package for Greece was approved by EU finance ministers, only just scraping through. The Greek government is fulfilling requirements late and is seen to be dragging its feet. Nonetheless, the money keeps on flowing in order to avert another debt crisis. Fresh talks about debt relief for Greece had to be postponed again at the end of the year - but the Greek economy is slowly starting to grow.

June

"The EU is in a lamentable state," said the president of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, in an interview with euronews. Given the many crises within the EU, and growing tensions among its member states, he painted a grim picture. "The centrifugal, extreme forces are winning elections and referendums," he said. "If we question the heart of the European project, we are playing with the future of the next generation." Schulz has now left Brussels after 22 years in European politics, and plans to embark on a second political career: as German foreign minister, or even the SPD candidate for German chancellor.

A triumph of nationalism in Britain: Brexit is a reality. The "Leave" camp won the referendum. "The sun has risen on an independent UK. And just look at it, even the weather has improved!” crowed leading pro-Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage in London the following morning. "It's a victory for ordinary people, decent people; it's a victory against the big merchant banks, against the big businesses, against big politics." But Farage, a member of the European Parliament, quickly made himself scarce, resigning as leader of the UK Independence Party. Boris Johnson also backed out: The conservative politician, who led the Brexit campaign, didn't want to become prime minister and have to organize the exit. Theresa May took over, and coined the not very illuminating maxim "Brexit means Brexit." The 27 remaining member states said they would not make concessions to Britain, and called on May to present her Brexit plan. Months after the referendum, however, she still doesn't seem to have one. May intends to put in a formal application at the end of March 2017 for Britain to leave the EU.

July

At a summit meeting in Warsaw, NATO decided that it would once again station small bands of troops along its eastern border. This was intended as a signal to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin: this far and no farther. "We are not seeking confrontation with Russia," said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg; rather, NATO wanted a "meaningful and constructive dialogue." Moscow's response was that it, too, was not threatening anyone, but that it felt encircled by the Western alliance. The conflict in eastern Ukraine, where Russia is directing the rebels, remained frozen: No progress was made with the Minsk peace protocol. Sanctions against Russia were extended. Russia and the West also support opposing sides in the war in Syria.

Terrorist attack in Nice. An Islamist terrorist drove a truck into a crowd on the beach promenade. The man, a Tunisian, killed a total of 85 people. France, and the whole of Europe, was stunned. French President François Hollande found himself under increasing pressure: His prime minister, Manuel Valls, was booed at a memorial service in Nice. The right-wing populist National Front is very strong in the south of France. People there are demanding more security.

In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan staved off an attempted coup. He consolidated his power with a wave of arrests and purges. The number of terror attacks by Islamists and Kurds in Turkey increased. The EU criticized Erdogan, but needed him to keep back the migrants. The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security, Federica Mogherini, described this balancing act: "We fully support the democratic and legitimate institutions. However, there is no justification for the response to circumvent fundamental rights and freedoms." Erdogan repeatedly threatened to annul the deal on refugees, but has not done so.

August

Earthquake in central Italy. The little town of Amatrice was almost completely reduced to rubble. Almost 300 people died. It was a heavy blow for an Italy that was already in economic trouble. The Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, promised swift aid, but the people of Amatrice didn't believe him. In 2009 there was an earthquake in nearby Aquila, and families there are still living in emergency shelters.

September

Twenty-seven EU states met in Bratislava for a discussion of the community's objectives following the departure of Britain. A vehement argument erupted over migration policy, lack of solidarity, and the demand for greater sovereignty for individual states. Luxembourg's foreign minister, Jean Asselborn, called for Hungary to be thrown out of the EU on account of the autocratic policies of its national-conservative leader, Viktor Orban. The Hungarian foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto, retaliated, saying: "Jean Asselborn has seriously insulted Hungary and the Hungarian people." The exchange says a great deal about the internal state of the bloc. Countries of the north and south are also in dispute over budgetary policy.

October

CETA is coming. The EU and Canada signed a free trade agreement, after a considerable struggle on the European side. A veto by a Belgian region almost scuppered the agreement. At the signing of the treaty, the Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, remained optimistic: "We are convinced we can demonstrate that international trade strengthens the middle class, and those working hard to join it," he said. CETA must now be ratified by all the EU member states. It is, however, by no means certain that the TTIP trade agreement with the United States will ever be signed. Opposition to it in Europe is growing, and the US president-elect, Donald Trump, is more inclined towards isolation.

The Calais "Jungle" was cleared. Thousands of people from the illegal camp had tried to cross from France to Britain through the Channel Tunnel, or in trucks on ferries. The migrants were redistributed around France, where they are supposed to be processed as asylum seekers. The Jungle had already been dismantled several times in recent years.

November

The European Parliament called for accession talks with Turkey, faltering for the past 11 years, to be frozen, saying that the country had breached fundamental European values. EU foreign ministers didn't go this far; instead, they decided that a new chapter in Turkey's accession negotiations would not be opened until further notice. Only Austria said clearly that Turkey could not become a member of the EU. The EU will continue to work with the Balkan states with a view to their accession.

December

The EU still doesn't have the refugee and migration crisis under control, according to the EU Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker. Hardly anyone is coming via the Balkan route any more, but almost as many are still coming from Africa as in 2015. The EU therefore wants to persuade African countries to prevent the migrants from setting off. Deterrence is the keyword. The EU calls these "migration partnerships."

At the December summit, EU heads of state and government admitted their incapacity to act with regard to the conflict in Syria. They could only stare in disbelief at the actions taken by Russia, Iran and the Syrian regime against the Syrian population. Their response to potential war crimes on the rebel side was equally impotent. "I won't hide the fact that this part of the discussion was very depressing, because we are all seeing something in the 21st century that is shameful, that breaks your heart. It shows that we were unable to act, that we would like to act," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel. She didn't address how this could be done.

Another victory for the populists: in Italy this time. The Socialist prime minister, Matteo Renzi, suffered a crushing defeat in a referendum on the constitution. The Italian people rejected both Renzi's EU-friendly course and his economic policy. The radical Five Star Movement surged ahead. An interim government is now tasked with getting Italy's banking crisis under control. The European Central Bank is continuing with its policy of ultra-cheap money, which supports crisis-hit countries like Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece and France. Northern countries are critical of this policy. The eurozone is creaking dangerously. But the European economy is growing, and unemployment is gradually sinking. "The risks remain high, both internally and externally," said Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank, as the year drew to a close.

Another terror attack shocked the European Union shortly before the end of the year, this time in the German capital, Berlin, where 12 people died and some 50 were injured after a truck drove into a Christmas market in the center of the city. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said the attack, suspected to have been carried out by a Tunisian man shot dead by police in Italy some days later, was all the more devastating because the victims "had gathered there to celebrate the pre-Christmas season, which unites many with peace."

Several EU countries stepped up security measures following the attack, as the bloc mulls over how best to combat terrorism without excessively curbing civil liberties." 

DW