Bulgaria, EU 'Demographic Bailout', and the New Frontier

Bulgaria has just become the first EU member state to have conducted a population census in 2011. The census results have expectedly revealed the scope of Bulgaria's demographic catastrophe – the country's population is declining rapidly, aging rapidly, and continuing to emigrate at a steady rate. Actually, in some ways the census results were better than expected – to the extent that any silver linings can be seen when a country's population declined from 7.9 million to 7.3 million in just 10 years. Examples of those are that Bulgaria's population hasn't gone below 7 million yet, and that there has been a notable increase in the birthrate over the past decade. So the "good news" is that Bulgaria's demographic situation is "only" apocalyptic while many had predicted it would be "hopeless." Of course, there is a really fine line between the two, if any.

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Because the demographic collapse of Bulgaria is rapidly, though not ostentatiously enough, becoming an EU problem. If unchecked, the worsening demographic situation not just in Bulgaria but also in some other parts of the European Union - most notably the Baltic states and parts of Central Europe - is bound to create or exacerbate (international) conflicts that can threaten the stability and prosperity of the entire EU. That is why the emerging or already clearly visible demographic ordeals in parts of the EU must become the catalyst for unprecedented policies and measures on part of the European Union that can only be described as "EU demographic bailouts."

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There is at least one more spot in the EU where the demographic collapse can cause international trouble – the Baltic states, especially Estonia and Latvia, with their declining populations and sizable ethnic Russian minorities. Many of the ethnic Russians in these countries reside there as "recognized non-citizens" refusing to accept local citizenship; their situation has been a grudge that Russia has been holding against the EU for more than a decade. Bulgaria and the Baltic states are not the only ones facing tough demographic realities in the EU. CIA World Factbook figures indicate that in 2010 compared with 2002 the population of Estonia declined by -8.9%, Latvia -6.4%; Bulgaria -6.2%, Romania -1.7%; Lithuania -1.6%; Hungary -0.9%, Poland -0.5%. Germany's population also declined by 2% and most Western European states are struggling with falling birthrates, their populations going up only thanks to the influx of immigrants.

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